High everyone! Grab your favorite local Thai stick or a chilled CBD sparkling water; it’s been a whirlwind month in the Land of Smiles. While some politicians are still trying to figure out if we’re a pharmacy or a festival, the industry keeps rolling along. We’ve got the latest on the “Medical 2.0” shift, some brainy science that might explain your last fridge raid, and a reminder of why our community stays resilient.

🏥 The Big Shift: Clinics, Pharmacies, and “Bud-tenders”

The “California-style” dream of 2019 is getting a distinctly clinical makeover. With Anutin Charnvirakul stepping into the Prime Minister’s role (again), the government is fast-tracking new cannabis control laws.

The Essentials: * The Upgrade: Dispensaries may soon be required to transition into licensed medical clinics or traditional medicine facilities.

• The Expert: You’ll likely see a certified “traditional medicine” practitioner on-site at all times.

• The Goal: Moving toward a 100% medical model to ensure long-term stability, and finally passing that elusive Cannabis Act to keep the Pheu Thai skeptics at bay.

🧠 Science Corner: Your Brain on Terpenes

Two new studies are giving us a “wink and a nod” regarding why we feel the way we do:

• The Munchies Decoded: Researchers at Washington State found that THC “hijacks” the brain’s appetite circuits, tricking it into thinking it’s in a fasting state, which explains why you suddenly need beef jerky at 2 AM.

• Memory Glitches: A double-blind study revealed that THC can lead to “false memories” and “source confusion” (e.g., forgetting if you heard a fact from a doctor or a meme). So, maybe write down that billion-dollar business idea before the second joint.

🥊 Global Hits & Misses

• Snoop vs. The Feds: In a move that surprised no one but disappointed many, the US Patent Office denied Snoop Dogg the trademark for “Smoke Weed Everyday.” Why? Because it’s “too popular” and marijuana is still federally illegal in the States. Stick to the Death Row Records lifestyle platform for now, Snoop.

• Alcohol Substitution: A new study confirms what we’ve known for years: about one in three CBD users are using it to replace or supplement traditional painkillers and anti-anxiety meds.

📜 Cannabis Quote of the Month

“Similar to how methadone is used to treat opioid-use disorder, cannabis medicines may form part of an effective treatment for those with a cannabis-use disorder.” — Jack Wilson, University of Sydney Researcher

📅 This Month in Cannabis History: April

April isn’t just about the heat in Bangkok; it’s the holiest month on the stoner calendar.

• April 4: Birthday of the legendary Robert “B-Real” Galleros of Cypress Hill (born 1970).

• April 15: Birthday of the man, the myth, the legend: Seth Rogen (born 1982).

• April 20 (4/20): The International Holiday of Highs.

• April 28: Birthday of the “Red Headed Stranger,” Willie Nelson (born 1933).

• Thai History Milestone: In April 2024, the Ministry of Public Health began the heavy drafting process for the current regulations we are navigating today, following the historic 2022 decriminalization pushed by the Bhumjaithai Party.

⚠️ A Friendly Reminder

Phuket police recently raided an illegal extract factory run by a foreign national without proper licensing. Whether you’re a local operator or a visiting enthusiast, remember: Play by the rules so we can all keep playing.

Reminder:  If you have any cannabis news related to Thailand or you want to let us know about something cannabis-related that you’re working on, we would love to hear from you.  

🗳️ The Blue Wave: Anutin Claims Victory

In a historic turn for the “Land of Smiles,” the Bhumjaithai Party emerged as the winner of the 2026 general election, clearing the path for Anutin Charnvirakul to become Thailand’s 33rd Prime Minister. For those of us in the community, this is a massive sigh of relief. Unlike the opposition, Anutin’s “blue camp” has never wavered in its stance against re-criminalizing the plant.

While Pheu Thai, led by thorns in our side like Julapun Amornvivat, managed to snag about 80 seats, they’ve had to acknowledge that government formation sits squarely with Bhumjaithai. Expect a more stable, albeit strictly regulated, medical framework to take hold, finally giving legal operators the peace of mind they’ve been craving since the 2025 crackdowns.

⚖️ The “Medical-Only” Reality Check

If you’re reading this from a beach in Phuket, take note: the “Amsterdam of Asia” era has officially matured.

• Prescriptions are King: You now need a valid medical prescription from a licensed Thai professional to legally buy or possess flower.

• The Great Shakeout: Stricter enforcement and new “clinic-only” rules have led to over 7,000 shop closuresnationwide.

• Travel Advisory: The UK Foreign Office is busy reminding tourists that recreational use remains illegal and that carrying stashed “souvenirs” through customs can lead to a long-term stay in a much less comfortable Thai institution.

We are well-aware that not everyone is asking for prescriptions yet, but, technically, that is the law. As with all things Thailand-related, how laws are enforced is not always consistent and can change from police district to police district.

🚔 Bad Apples in Pathum Thani

It wouldn’t be a week in the industry without some drama. A 22-year-old cannabis vendor in Pathum Thani recently accused a group of 10 men, including serving police officers, of a “wrongful raid”. The group allegedly made off with 800,000 baht in cash and cannabis trees valued at over 2.2 million baht. Arrest warrants have been issued for six suspects, proving that even with legal permits, the industry still faces a wild-west element.

🧠 High Science: The “Munchies” are Real

Researchers at Washington State University have finally confirmed what we’ve known for decades: the munchies are a brain-mediated biological phenomenon.

• Hypothalamus Hijack: THC activates specific neurons in the hypothalamus, making you feel starving even if you’ve just eaten.

• The Craving: Interestingly, the top craving wasn’t chocolate or chips, it was beef jerky (yum).

• Therapeutic Potential: This isn’t just for snacks; it’s a major win for patients suffering from appetite loss due to chemotherapy or HIV/AIDS.

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🗓️ This Month in Cannabis History: March

• March 2, 1971: Happy 55th Birthday to Wu-Tang’s own Method Man. Whether he’s rapping or acting, MZA has been a vocal advocate for the culture for decades.

• March 2, 1972: The Shafer Commission, appointed by President Nixon, released its report recommending the decriminalization of cannabis in the U.S.. Nixon, of course, famously ignored it.

• March 2, 1977: Happy Birthday to Chris Martin of Coldplay. While not a “stoner icon” in the traditional sense, he has publicly advocated for the legalization of all drugs to take the power away from gangs.

• March 26, 1969: In the landmark case Learly v. United States, the U.S. Supreme Court declared the Marijuana Tax Act of 1937 unconstitutional. This was a massive legal win led by Dr. Timothy Leary.

• Thai History Highlight: Throughout March 2026, the industry is closely watching the formation of Anutin Charnvirakul’s new Cabinet. Community leaders are pushing for the finalization of the Cannabis Act this month to provide the long-overdue stability for legal growers and medical clinics.

Reminder: If you have any cannabis news related to Thailand or you want to let us know about something cannabis-related that you’re working on, we would love to hear from you.

Sawadee Everyone,

If your New Year’s resolution was to cut back on the green stuff, you’re apparently not alone (we see you, 8% of Americans). For the rest of us, grab your favorite CBD-infused coffee and let’s dive into a week that saw massive shifts in the Thai market and some mind-bending science.

In today’s edition:

• The Great Weeding Out: 7,000 Thai shops close their doors.

• Microdose Macro Numbers: 10 million Americans are getting just a little bit high.

• Buzzkills: Police raids in Krabi and warnings in Pai.

🇹🇭 MARKET WATCH: The Great Weeding Out

If you’ve walked down Sukhumvit lately and noticed a few less neon leaves flickering in the night, you aren’t hallucinating. The numbers are in, and they are staggering: Over 7,000 cannabis shops in Thailand have shuttered in the last year.

The details:

• The Drop: In 2025, licenses for 8,636 shops expired, but only 1,339 renewed them. That’s a renewal rate of just 15.5%.

• The Reason: The government is tightening the screws. New regulations require sellers to operate in designated facilities (like medical clinics) and have trained personnel on-site.

• The Vibe: Public Health Minister Pattana Promphat says this is about “upgrading” the industry to protect consumers.

Our take: While seeing shops close is a bummer, it’s a sign the “Wild West” era is ending.

Side note on politics: You might have noticed our old friend Anutin Charnvirakul (the “Cannabis King” himself) has been pretty quiet on the campaign trail lately regarding weed. With Pheu Thai candidates like Yodchanan Wongsawat vowing a “war on drugs” and promising to wipe out narcotics in six months, our friends in the Bhumjaithai Party are likely keeping their heads down to protect the legacy of legalization. Smart move? Only time will tell.

🌏 WORLD WIDE WEED

🇺🇸 America is Microdosing En Masse

A new RAND Corporation report shows that nearly 10 million US adults microdosed psychedelics (psilocybin, LSD, or MDMA) in 2025.

• Why? Creativity and well-being.

• The Stat: 69% of psilocybin users said they microdosed at least once. It seems the “honey, I shrunk the dose” approach is going mainstream.

🇶🇦 Nightmare in Qatar

A somber warning for anyone traveling through the Middle East: An 18-year-old British teen is facing a prison nightmare in Qatar after being caught with cannabis while transiting from Thailand. His family says he was coerced.

• The Lesson: Check your bags, check them again, and maybe don’t fly through countries with zero-tolerance policies if you’ve been anywhere near a dispensary.

👮 THE BUZZKILL: Raids & Regulations

It wasn’t all smooth sailing in the Land of Smiles this week. Authorities are cracking down on bad actors and public nuisances.

• Krabi Raid: A massive cannabis farm in Krabi run by an Israeli national was raided for using Thai nominees to dodge ownership laws. They found a high-tech setup with keycard access and... 40 million baht in circulation.

• Pai Politeness: Police in the chill mountain town of Pai are warning tourists to stop smoking on the walking street. Keep it in the designated areas, folks. We don’t want to give the prohibitionists any ammo!

• Vape Warning: “Product Watch” is warning that cute, toy-like cannabis vapes are flooding the market and targeting kids. Not cool. Keep the products adult-oriented, please.

🔬 SCIENCE CORNER

Jurassic Pot

Scientists have reconstructed ancient cannabis enzymes (think Jurassic Park, but chill) to see how THC and CBD evolved millions of years ago.

• The Discovery: Ancient enzymes were “promiscuous”—they could make multiple cannabinoids at once. Modern enzymes are specialists.

• The Future: This could help biotech companies brew up rare cannabinoids like CBC much faster.

Cancer Fighter?

A new review from China suggests CBD has “substantial promise” as an anti-tumor agent, potentially messing with cancer cells’ ability to grow and spread. It’s still early days, but “anti-tumor” is music to our ears.

🥤 DRINK UP

Can Cannabis Cure the Hangover?

Well, maybe not cure it, but prevent it. A survey found that people who drink cannabis-infused beverages are successfully cutting back on alcohol.

• The Stat: Users went from ~7 alcoholic drinks a week to 3.35 after switching to the green juice.

• The Catch: Just be careful mixing them. Another study found that CBD + THC + Caffeine can actually increaseimpairment more than you expect. Sip responsibly!

That’s a wrap for this week!

Remember, the industry is changing fast. Stay safe, respect the local laws (especially in Pai!), and keep supporting the good shops that are doing it right.

Sawadee Everyone,

Another month, another year, another stack of cannabis headlines that prove one thing: weed is complicated, powerful, and still wildly misunderstood, especially when governments try to manage it with one hand tied behind their back.

I’ve always warned that Thailand’s domestic politics can be a bit of a roller coaster and 2025 didn’t disappoint. We saw yet another PM removed from office, flip-flopping on cannabis policy, Anutin becoming PM, and new regulations that seem not too radically different from Pheu Thai’s policies.

My take on the new regulations coming is that Anutin is eyeing the 2026 elections and realizing now that he has been in the PM spot and has been handling the conflict with Cambodia, he and his party actually have a shot at returning to power, so he’s not going to invite any additional scrutiny by softening the cannabis policy. He can point to it and declare that it’s mostly Pheu Thai’s policy so they shouldn’t have anything negative to say about it (but of course, they will - hypocrisy is lifeblood of politics).

Whether he enforces it is an entirely different matter.

That puts us back in limbo land again should Bhumjaithai end up having to bring in People’s Party or assemble a large coalition government. And we’re even more in uncharted territory if Bhumjaithai is shut out of any new government.

We’ll see how this all plays out over the coming weeks and months but expect a lot of uncertainty going into 2026.

Until then, let’s jump into the current news.

🧠 Science, Health & “Wait, That’s Actually Interesting”

Cannabis, brains, and nuance (a concept policymakers keep missing):

• A new study suggests prenatal THC exposure may be linked to lasting brain and behavioral changes.

  👉 Translation: cannabis isn’t harmless in every context, and pretending otherwise helps no one.

• On the flip side, legal marijuana access appears to reduce suicide rates among older adults.

  👉 Funny how mental health outcomes improve when people have safer coping tools.

• Heavy drinkers who smoke cannabis reportedly consume less alcohol overall.

  👉 If public health were the goal, this would be front-page news.

• Researchers also found soil type can significantly alter cannabinoid concentration, a big deal for Thai growers working across wildly different regions.

• Bonus science: Non-intoxicating cannabis compounds may help reverse opioid-related brain changes.

  👉 Meanwhile, some governments are still pretending cannabis is the problem.

🌏 Policy, Politics & the Global Green Shift

The world keeps moving, Thailand included, even when it hesitates:

• The US took a massive step when Trump ordered the reclassification of cannabis, signaling a long-overdue shift in federal drug policy.

  👉 Once the US moves, the dominoes tend to fall.

• A new report shows the War on Drugs is actively making the climate crisis worse.

  👉 Prohibition: bad for people, bad for the planet, bad all around.

• Governments are finally admitting the obvious: marijuana regulations protect public health better than alcohol rules.

  👉 Someone please forward this to every moral panic committee.

🇹🇭 Thailand: Progress, Panic & Policy Whiplash

Thailand’s cannabis story continues to be… uniquely Thai:

• New rules were approved that tighten the screws on dispensaries.

  👉 Growing pains were always part of the plan, though clearer communication would help.

• At the same time, many Thais remain unaware of alcohol’s health risks.

  👉 The irony is thick enough to hotbox a room.

• Multiple international cases highlight the ongoing disconnect between Thai legalization and foreign enforcement:

  • A Thai woman jailed in Taiwan for cannabis is seeking urgent deportation due to a heart condition

  • Large cannabis shipments traced back to Thailand intercepted overseas

  👉 Legal here does not mean legal there. Say it louder for the tourists in the back.

🧬 Culture, Tech & “Of Course This Exists Now”

• Scientists demonstrated that AI can be used to design new cannabis strains.

  👉 Somewhere, a breeder just muttered “back in my day…”

• Meanwhile, reports of cannabis-induced ‘scromiting’ (yes, screaming + vomiting) are rising, usually linked to overuse, high-THC products, and lack of education.

  👉 Regulation + education > prohibition + headlines.

🧾 Final Toke

Cannabis is a tool, and like any tool, outcomes depend on education, regulation, and honesty.

Thailand took a bold step by legalizing. That deserves credit.

Now comes the harder part: refining the system without panicking, backtracking, or pretending alcohol isn’t sitting right there causing far more damage.

Sawadee Everyone,

The month cannabis science took a victory lap, and cannabis headlines reminded us the world still hasn’t caught up.

If November had a theme, it was this:

Cannabis is doing the exact opposite of what 50 years of propaganda promised.

While politicians still dust off their “think of the children” speeches, researchers spent the month churning out data showing cannabis:

• Reduces alcohol intake

• Improves mood and stress levels

• Has multiple, distinct aroma profiles far beyond “weed smells like weed”

• May not actually be as strong as the label claims (oops)

• Works as a harm-reduction substitute

And in Thailand?

We saw the usual cocktail of tourist arrests, moral panic, and one woman face-planting on Bangla Road after wolfing down edibles.

So… progress is uneven.

Let’s break the month down.

Cannabis vs Alcohol: A Blowout Month for Weed Science

If November had a scoreboard:

Cannabis: 5

Alcohol: Crying in the parking lot

Study: Cannabis use linked to reduced alcohol intake

A foundational harm-reduction study: regular cannabis users showed notable drops in drinking, often replacing nightly drinks with THC. Less booze = fewer fights, fewer health issues, fewer “Who drove the scooter?” mornings.

Study: Drinking cannabis beverages reduces alcohol use AND boosts mood

Cannabis beverages didn’t just cut drinking, users reported better mood, sleep, and stress.

California Sober actually works, says real scientists

Researchers concluded that replacing booze with cannabis does exactly what the trend claims:

• Less alcohol

• Fewer hangovers

• Fewer destructive behaviors

• No increase in adverse outcomes

Proximity matters: Living near dispensaries = more cannabis, less alcohol

The closer you live to legal cannabis shops, the more you shift consumption away from alcohol.

This holds for both recreational and medical users.

The Science of Smell and Strength: Weed Labeling Takes a Hit

Your weed might not be as strong as the label says

Studies found THC inflation everywhere. Shocker: cannabis companies sometimes exaggerate.

The new wave of testing shows many products overstate potency by 20–40%. I can only imagine how fabricated the THC numbers are in Thailand.

Four distinct cannabis aroma profiles discovered

Researchers mapped molecular-level aroma clusters — meaning the nose knows more biology than most governments give it credit for.

This is huge for:

• Consumer education

• Retail categorization

• Marketing (“Fruity Diesel” is now a scientifically defensible phrase)

Psychedelics Enter the Chat

Johns Hopkins launches major psychedelic & consciousness online course

Psychedelics are the next cannabis.

The biggest academic name in the space dropped a brand-new course, guaranteed to push psychedelics into mainstream medical discussion faster than lawmakers can Google “psilocybin.”

Crime, Tourism & Chaos: Thailand Headlines Remain Peak Thailand

Science may be evolving fast, but Thai cannabis headlines?

Still… Thai cannabis headlines.

Six British tourists arrested in Pattaya for “cannabis dealing”

Turns out selling weed is still a crime (who knew?).

Tourists continue treating Thailand like the Wild West, only to remember the sheriff actually exists.

Foreign woman collapses on Bangla Road after consuming a cannabis edible

Thailand’s most Phuket story:

Tourist eats too much edible → collapses → becomes content.

Moral panic ensues in a town where you can go on Instagram and catch up on all the drunken brawls that took place the night before.

Navy corporal caught smuggling 10.2 kg of Thai marijuana into Korea

Asia takes smuggling seriously. Why is this lesson so hard for people to accept?

Irish man jailed for transporting €500,000 worth of cannabis from Thailand

Half a million euro of Thai weed shipped toward Ireland.

The kind of “tourism export” Thailand didn’t have in mind.

Pregnant British teen smuggling case gets dramatic turn

Thailand courts continue delivering plot twists.

This one reads like the script for a Netflix docuseries that already has six episodes in production.

Industry & Business: Cookies in Trouble, THC Drinks Soar

Cookies faces potential insolvency after major judgment

The brand that turned weed into streetwear culture may be on the ropes financially.

The story is part lawsuits, part drama, part “this is what happens when you run a cannabis empire like a sneaker drop.”

Cannabis consumers are more likely to shop at Target — and buy THC beverages

Not exactly Thailand related but it does seem logical that cannabis trends in other countries could also apply in Thailand. I would guess the profile of the average cannabis user in Thailand fits a similar demographic.

Data shows cannabis buyers:

• Spend more on wellness products

• Buy fewer alcoholic drinks

• Love THC beverages

• Shop at Target (but honestly, why?)

This is exactly the consumer profile big companies drool over.

Harm Reduction & Public Health: Not All Headlines Are Created Equal

Using tobacco + cannabis harms the “bliss molecule”

This one is important: researchers found that combining tobacco with cannabis is worse than cannabis alone, especially for the endocannabinoid system.

THE TAKEAWAY: We’re Living Through Peak Cognitive Dissonance

On one side:

Science is pumping out study after study showing cannabis reduces alcohol use, improves health outcomes, and is far safer than legacy propaganda ever claimed.

On the other side:

Governments, moral panickers, and confused tourists are still operating under 1990s logic.

But the direction is unmistakable:

Cannabis is moving into the “public health tool” category while alcohol slowly slides toward “legacy vice we quietly regret.”

This month didn’t just tell the story — it showed the trajectory.

Sawadee Everyone,

I can’t help but laugh every time someone from the Phuket Tourism Association claims that cannabis is “bad for tourism.”

Let’s be clear, these people don’t represent Phuket’s tourism industry as a whole. They represent the big players: hotels, tour conglomerates, duty-free empires. Think Wyndham, Sheraton, Holiday Inn, King Power. The suits, not the street vendors.

In a recent Bangkok Post piece titled “Whiffy Phuket urges cannabis blitz”, PTA vice-president Sarayut Mallum warned that “some tourists smoked several joints in succession, leading to hallucinations and dangerous actions.”

Dangerous actions, you say? You know what causes far more of those? Alcohol. The World Health Organization says there’s no safe amount of booze. Even one drink harms your body.

I’m not anti-booze. I enjoy an occassional cold one myself. But the audacity of pointing fingers at weed while drunks are literally staggering up and down Bangla Road every night, puking on sidewalks, fighting, wrecking scooters, and waking up in hospitals, is beyond parody.

If cannabis is a public-safety concern, then Bangla Road is a weapon of mass destruction.

Every year, 30–40 tourists drown in Phuket. Another hundred die in traffic accidents or fights. No one’s calling for swimming-license checks or bans on scooter rentals to unlicensed tourists. But weed, zero fatalities in 10,000 years, is the hill they’ve chosen to die on.

The PTA keeps whining about Phuket’s “family-friendly image.” Apparently, a sunburned Aussie passed out in his own vomit on Bangla Road is wholesome fun for the kids, but a guy quietly spacing out on the beach is a moral crisis.

The only half-credible complaint about weed is the smell. Fair. I can’t stand cigars either. But there are adult ways to deal with odor that don’t involve prohibition.

Ironically, or typically, since this is Thailand (TiT), the two easiest fixes are banned.

Vaping (dry herb or liquid) cuts the smell dramatically. I’ve vaped right next to my wife and she didn’t even notice. And designated smoking lounges would work just like the old airport cigarette rooms: smoky inside, neutral outside. Problem solved.

Las Vegas already made this mistake. They legalized weed for tourists, then banned public consumption. Brilliant. The result? Tourists smoking in casino parking garages and guests complaining that the parking garages smell like weed.

Thailand could learn other lessons from Vegas too. Both once offered affordable adult playgrounds. Then both tried to go “family-friendly,” pricing themselves out of their own market.

Vegas turned $1.99 steak-and-lobster dinners into $300 meals. Free parking became $50 a day. Even Wi-Fi became a “resort fee.” Tourists got fed up. These days, the only thing that stays in Vegas is your money.

Thailand’s heading down the same road. And like Vegas, the big operators blame everyone but themselves, certainly not their inflated prices or declining value.

Let’s be honest: the PTA isn’t speaking for Phuket. They’re speaking for themselves. Their business model depends on mass tourism, busloads of visitors funneled through the same hotels, restaurants, and King Power gift shops.

Meanwhile, they ignore the mom-and-pop businesses that actually give Phuket its soul , the very people who could benefit from cannabis tourism.

And while they pretend to clutch pearls over public safety, they’ve never called for tighter alcohol rules, quite the opposite, actually. Many of these same industry groups lobby the government to relax alcohol restrictions because it’s good for their business.

So let’s do the math:

• Alcohol: ~70,000 Thai deaths per year.

• Cannabis: still at a clean, crisp zero.

But sure, weed is the threat to “family values.”

Stay lifted and enlightened,

thailandTHC

Thailand THC Monthly News Wrap-Up

Your industry briefing: legal updates, science breakthroughs, and Thai political gymnastics.

The Blunt Truth

• Germany publishes real data on legalization.

• Thailand considers a “drug war reset” while simultaneously promoting cannabis culture festivals.

• Science continues to prove cannabis beats pain meds.

• And yes, a new cannabinoid has entered the chat.

Germany Releases Legalization Report

Result: Youth use down. Traffic accidents unchanged. Adults behaving normally.

Germany’s federal government released its first official evaluation of cannabis legalization, and the results dismantle every tired prohibition argument:

• Youth cannabis use declined after legalization

• No increase in accidents or dangerous driving

• Adult use remained stable, not higher

The only weakness noted: the illicit market hasn’t shrunk yet, because Germany still doesn’t have a full commercial retail system, only social clubs and personal cultivation.

Read the full breakdown

Analysis: Legalization works when you let the legal market actually function.

Thailand: Bhumjaithai Announces Drug-War Reset

Cannabis reform “finished,” but remember, they are the party that legalized it.

Deputy PM Sophon Saram stood before Parliament and declared that Bhumjaithai will now focus on tackling drugs, asking for four months to show results. He said cannabis reform is “done.”

We remain tactful on this one. Without Bhumjaithai and Anutin, cannabis would still be illegal. Whatever political pressure they’re navigating now, the legalization legacy stands.

Article

Thailand to Implement 300-Baht Tourist Entry Fee

Projected to start within four months.

The Ministry of Tourism confirmed plans to collect a 300-baht entry fee from foreign tourists, framed as a “safety and welfare” fund. Nobody seems to think whacking on a 300 baht fee will impact tourism in any way.

Read more

Whether or not tourists view this as a “safety enhancement” remains to be seen.

Science: Cannabis Outperforms Pain Meds

Clinical study + large patient survey = consistent results.

1. German clinical trial

• 820 patients with chronic lower back pain

• Treated with full-spectrum extract (5% THC)

• Reported pain relief and better sleep

• No addiction or serious adverse effects

Study summary

2. U.S. national chronic-pain survey

• 35% stopped prescription pain medications entirely after switching to cannabis

• 56% reported significant pain reduction

• Sleep and mobility improved

Survey

Analysis: Patients are not seeking intoxication.

They are seeking relief.

Researchers Discover New Cannabinoid: CBGD

Potential strong anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties.

A scientific team identified a new cannabinoid, Cannabizetol (CBGD), with very promising dermatological and anti-inflammatory characteristics.

Article

The more we study cannabis, the more value we uncover.

Policy restrictions are now the only limiting factor.

Event: NUDKINPUK FAIR 2025 Returns

November 8–9, ChangChui Creative Park, Bangkok

Thailand’s largest cannabis culture festival returns — music, vendors, healing zone, and the Miss Mary Jane pageant.

Details

A festival celebrating the very industry certain politicians say they’re “finished” with. Thailand remains Thailand.

Media Fear-Bait of the Week

A crime story was framed as a “weed causes violence” narrative.

Article

Cannabis is not the cause of violent crime, domestic trauma, mental illness, or societal failures.

It is a plant.

Final Thought

Every new study confirms what the industry has known for decades:

• Cannabis is not a problem to be controlled.

• It is a resource to be understood and optimized.

• Legalization is not a leap of faith, it is evidence-based public policy.

Sawadee Everyone,

Just as we guessed back in early September, Anutin Charnvirakul managed to wrangle together enough support (with a little help from the People’s Party) to slide into the prime minister’s seat. Sworn in, cabinet set, stopwatch running, Anutin says he’s only here for about four months before handing things back to the voters in early 2026.

And honestly, he doesn’t exactly have the luxury of a long honeymoon. Between the conflict with Cambodia, flooding, roads caving in, tourism taking a kamikaze nosedive and an economy wobbling like a tuk-tuk with a flat tire, he’s busy juggling actual governance for once.

So… What About Weed?

Since taking office, Anutin’s been tight-lipped on cannabis. But on the ground? The knives that Pheu Thai had out for dispensaries and growers have mysteriously vanished (or at least been sheathed for now).

Take Phuket: back in August, the local government swore up and down it would start enforcing Pheu Thai’s “prescription-only” rules by September 1. Then, once it became clear Pheu Thai’s days were numbered, September 1 rolled around with all the enforcement vigor of a sleeping soi dog. In other words, nothing happened.

For now, the Ministry of Public Health and law enforcement seem to be in a holding pattern.

The one exception? Phuket’s hotel and tourism operators, who, despite rampant prostitution, mafia taxis, overpriced everything, tourists running down Bangla Road naked, and, yes, Russians getting it on in pickup trucks, still insist cannabis is the real problem dragging down the island’s reputation. (Pro tip: when you can’t find a real reason, just yank one out of thin air)

The Cannabis Needle to Thread

Anutin’s position is tricky. He’s expected to tweak Pheu Thai’s heavy-handed cannabis rules, likely softening the more punitive measures that seemed designed to kneecap growers and dispensaries, but he has to do it carefully.

Expect moves that look tough but don’t bite much. Enough to let him say: “See? It was medicinal all along. It’s those other guys who turned it political.”

But don’t start rolling celebratory joints just yet. Pheu Thai probably won’t win the next election, but the People’s Party, currently the frontrunner, hasn’t exactly been waving green flags either. They’re more in the “Canadian model” camp: keep it strictly medicinal at first, then maybe open it up once society chills out.

Anutin’s Four-Month Audition

This short stint is a golden opportunity for Anutin to polish his party’s image. If Bhumjaithai racks up enough seats in the next election, he could once again find himself in the kingmaker role, deciding which way the coalition swings.

Meanwhile, People’s Party has its own headaches. Their big splash in the last election fizzled after Pheu Thai boxed them out of power. Many pundits think PP won’t repeat its Move Forward-era highs, which means… they may need Bhumjaithai (or someone other than Pheu Thai) as a partner to govern.

That’s why PP swallowed its pride and backed Anutin this round, despite hating just about everything he stands for (especially recreational cannabis). Politics, after all, is the fine art of holding your nose while cutting deals.

The Outlook

Cloudy skies, with a strong chance of political thunderstorms. Cannabis is safe (for now) but the next four months will be all about Anutin threading a very thin needle while his rivals sharpen their knives for election season.

Until next month…

Stay lifted and enlightened,

thailandTHC

Sawadee Everyone,

Thailand’s political soap opera has claimed yet another Shinawatra. While we don’t yet know who the next prime minister will be, we know who it won’t be: Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

After her father, Thaksin, narrowly dodged prison this week on lèse-majesté charges, Paetongtarn was less fortunate. The Constitutional Court removed her from office over a leaked call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen.

That makes it three Shinawatras elected prime minister, three Shinawatras ejected from office. Two by coup. One by court. A dynasty defined as much by downfall as by victory.

Who’s Still Standing?

Under the constitution, parties had to submit PM candidates before the 2023 election. For Pheu Thai (PT), that list now looks like the political equivalent of a bad joke:

• Srettha Thavisin — already out.

• Paetongtarn Shinawatra — just removed.

• Chaikasem Nitisiri — 77, poor health, and previously passed over.

For Chaikasem to succeed, PT must win a majority vote in parliament and hold together a coalition. With their credibility in tatters, that’s a steep climb. Ultra-nationalists are already protesting in the streets that PT doesn’t deserve to continue in power.

Enter the People’s Party (PP)

The real roadblock is PT’s old frenemy: the People’s Party (PP), rebranded from Move Forward.

• PT: Old-school populists under Thaksin’s shadow, addicted to handouts and nostalgia politics.

• PP: Young, reformist, and willing to push monarchy reform, a dangerous but energizing message.

Crucially, PT betrayed PP in 2023, stealing the PM slot. Without PP’s backing, PT’s chances of keeping power are almost nil.

The Anutin Gambit

That opens the door for Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai (BJT) — architect of cannabis legalization.

PP has said they could support Anutin as PM, provided he:

1. Commits to early elections.

2. Allows constitutional reform debates.

Though they were clear to say that they would not join BJT in a ruling coalition government and would continue to remain in the opposition.

On Friday, Anutin eagerly agreed. PT scrambled to get a meeting too but bungled it, first trying to stall elections. They later backtracked.

BJT insiders now claim defections from PT are already locked in. PT’s acting PM dismissed this as “nonsense.”

Prayut’s Poll Surprise

Meanwhile, ex-general, ex-coup leader, ex-PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, is suddenly Thailand’s most popular PM candidate. A border flare-up with Cambodia has stoked nationalism, boosting his strongman image.

Polls suggest he could retake the top job easily, but he already has a prestigious role as royal advisor. Would he give it up to return to the grind? Few believe so.

Cannabis Forecast

• Chaikasem (PT): Bad news. Would likely follow Thaksin’s orders and crack down.

• Anutin (BJT): Best outcome. Would roll back PT’s suffocating rules on dispensaries and growers.

• Prayut: Wildcard. Not a cannabis crusader, but would likely let Anutin steer as he did when Anutin pushed legalization while Prayut was PM.

The Road Ahead

No matter who takes the seat, it’s likely a lame-duck administration, with new elections expected by early 2026.

• PP is positioned to surge, now battle-tested in opposition.

• PT is bleeding support. Their 10,000-baht digital wallet flop and casino bill disaster have left voters cold, and many have simply had enough of Shinawatra politics. However, they are scrambling to get parliamentary support and have met with PP to try and secure their support.

• By 2030 (the next projected election if new elections are held in 2026), Thaksin will be pushing 80. The Shinawatra era is likely finished.

At a Glance

Winners

• Anutin Charnvirakul (BJT): Cannabis crusader turned PM contender.

• People’s Party (PP): Now kingmakers.

• Prayut Chan-o-cha: Polls say Thailand might still love its old general.

Losers

• Pheu Thai (PT): Two Shinawatras gone in a week.

• Paetongtarn Shinawatra: Another dynasty heir cut down.

• Thaksin Shinawatra: From asset to liability. Still facing possible jail time if it is determine that his illness was not severe enough for him to have spent his entire jail term in a 5-star hospital room.

Cannabis Outlook

• Chaikasem: Crackdown risk.

• Anutin: Best-case for reform.

• Prayut: Neutral to mildly positive.

What’s Next

• This week or next: PM vote in parliament.

• By early 2026: New elections almost certain.

• Beyond: PP ascendant, PT in decline, cannabis future tied to Anutin’s survival and-or PP’s willingness to slow down PT’s punitive new laws.

Bottom line: Thailand is entering yet another transition. Shinawatras are out, PP is ascendant, and cannabis policy could swing wildly depending on who sits in the big chair. But no matter what, all roads now point to early elections in 2026.

PP is likely to continue being the largest party after a 2026 election and thus would likely take the helm as PM and ruling coalition partner. In the past, PP’s former leader, Pita, said that while he wasn’t pro-cannabis, he would like to see Thailand go down a path similar to Canada, first medicinal, and then eventually, sometime far down the road, adult/recreational legalization.

If Anutin becomes PM prior to that, he could cement cannabis rules before PP or anyone else comes to power thus making it difficult to change after the fact.

At the moment, that does seem to be the best case scenario for cannabis in Thailand but we’ll have to wait to see how the scramble for power shakes out over the next few days.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

In case you’ve been living under a rock this past month, let me catch you up. Thailand’s politics have been in full-on chaos mode. The last 30 days have delivered more drama than a year’s worth of Thai soap operas.

Let’s start with cannabis, because of course, it’s in the crossfire. The government announced new regulations — and then promptly delayed them 30 to 60 days. Classic Thailand. Anyone familiar with how Thai governance works could see this coming a mile away. The playbook is always the same: make a grand announcement, then realize they’re utterly unprepared to follow through.

We’ve seen this before. Anutin removed cannabis from the controlled substances list months before the change went into effect, giving ministries plenty of time to prepare. They didn’t. Instead, they woke up on June 9, 2022, panicked, and scrambled to draft half-baked rules about public consumption and advertising.

Fast forward to current day. Minister Somsak drops new compliance rules on dispensaries and growers, and surprise they didn’t even have the forms ready. I spoke with three dispensary owners in Phuket this week. Not one of them has received official word about these new regulations. They’re learning about it the same way everyone else is: from the news. It reeks less of genuine public health concern and more like political payback, coming just days after Bhumjaithai pulled its support from the ruling coalition.

But cannabis is just a sideshow. The main event is the political implosion unfolding in real time. The Shinawatra name is becoming, once again, synonymous with disaster. No Shinawatra has left office voluntarily. Thaksin? Coup. Yingluck? Coup. And now Paetongtarn stands at the edge of that same cliff.

Thaksin’s return was always going to end like this. The man has no “Sabai Sabai” setting. His political style is like a bull in a china shop. He charges ahead, leaving a trail of enemies who, in time, find common cause in bringing him down.

So, why might Pheu Thai’s days be numbered? It starts with that infamous phone call between the PM and Hun Sen. I won’t wade into the Cambodia border drama, but let’s just say it has lit a political fuse. There’s rampant speculation that Bhumjaithai played a hand in turning Hun Sen against the Shinawatras, unproven but very plausible in the eyes of many Thais.

Protests are growing, with tens of thousands marching and calling for Paetongtarn to resign. The word “coup” is creeping back into the media’s vocabulary, and protesters aren’t exactly being subtle about their openness to military intervention.

The courts will soon decide whether to investigate the PM over the phone call, and they may suspend her during that process. Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai is lining up a no-confidence vote. Pheu Thai’s fallback PM candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, is quietly testing the waters but comes with his own baggage — health concerns and ethical clouds that make him an unlikely Pheu Thai savior.

And let’s not forget Thaksin’s legal troubles. Between hospital stay scandals and possible Section 112 violations, his presence is now a liability Paetongtarn can’t survive without and can’t afford to stand by.

At this point, the outcome feels inevitable. The real question isn’t if Pheu Thai loses power. It’s how.

• A coup would hand the reins to the military.

• A court removal would force other parties to form a new coalition. If it gets to this point, it’s almost assured that MPs from all parties will start bailing on the coalition and scramble to make new deals.

• If Paetongtarn steps down voluntarily, the result would look much the same.

• A dissolved parliament and snap election would likely deliver a People’s Party landslide, bringing us right back to square one. Not that that is terribly bad. People’s Party, while opposed to recreational cannabis, seemed much more open to working with cannabis activists and the medical community to draft sensible laws.

• If coalition partners bail, Pheu Thai loses its majority and the opposition seizes control.

One way or another, the Shinawatra era looks to be drawing to a close, and this time, they won’t have anyone to blame but themselves.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

The experience of combat as often been described as hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer chaos. That seems to be true of the cannabis situation in Thailand.

After months of absolute silence since former PM Srettha was shown the door, suddenly weed is in the news again with the Minister of Public Health, Somsak Thepsutin, declaring that new rules would be forthcoming.

Most information coming out of the process at the moment seems to indicate that:

• Some sort of medical card or prescription will be required to purchase cannabis

• There will be a lot more scrutiny put on growers both in terms of quality and making sure less weed ends up being exported illegally

All in all, nothing crazy this time around. However, it remains to be seen how the medical card or prescription will work. For instance, does Thailand even have enough Thai traditional medicine doctors to meet tourist demand?

According to sources I could find, there are only 30,000 Thai traditional medicine doctors in all of Thailand. There are another 70,000 or so medical physicians but it’s not like the entire medical establishment is going to stop everything and focus on writing weed scripts.

Let’s say 10% of Thai traditional medicine doctors focus on cannabis, that’s 3,000 doctors and there are over 7,000 dispensaries.

And what is to keep the doctors from bullying smaller dispensaries for their own financial gain? For instance, let’s say a Thai traditional medicine doctor decides to offer prescriptions via his cousin’s dispensary but either refuses to write prescriptions for competitors or they apply a higher standard for qualifying conditions. Or what would keep a Thai traditional doctor from simply refusing to fill prescriptions for other dispensary customers and opening his own dispensary/clinic?

This is less of a concern in bigger markets like Bangkok but unless there is fair access to a system that can’t be rigged against small shops, this could end up causing a major upheaval making it impossible for smaller shops to compete.

But we’ll have to see all that shakes out after the public hearing period and then seeing what final laws come out of it.

One thing seems certain though, this time they plan on putting criminal penalties behind the laws. Up until now, most of the laws being applied to cannabis have been a hodgepodge of other laws meant for different purposes and many of those rules have no real bite.

For instance, at the moment, the government can only really fine dispensaries for violating the law. The new laws will give it the power to shut them down and potentially to arrest and charge owners and staff.

I’ve seen some mentions by the Thai police indicating that this is the reason why there has been almost zero enforcement of what laws do exist. What’s the point of arresting someone if there’s no penalty for the crime?

This will bring a new era of Thai police involvement in the cannabis business. Whether that’s a good or bad thing remains to be seen.

But, maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves.

I’ve written a few times that no Shinawatra has ever left the prime ministership voluntarily. Well, we may be headed down that path again so the big question is, will the Shinawatras still be in power by the end of 2025 to enact any cannabis laws?

I could probably fill a few pages with the various ways former PM Thaksin has broken with protocol since he returned but let’s just focus on what may see him behind bars.

First, it’s hard to ignore the signal that was sent as Thaksin’s sister, former PM Yingluck, was told she was responsible for over 10 billion in damages due to her rice scheme (since revised downward . . . but only a bit). Apparently she doesn’t have to pay it all back herself but if the Shinawatras were hoping for a sign that they could just keep plowing ahead with their agenda, that came to a screeching halt this week.

Thaksin is currently in two legal crosshairs, his stay at the hospital instead of prison and speaking ill of the monarchy several years ago.

Three of the doctors who were behind Thaksin’s move to the hospital from prison have been punished. Two have been stripped of their license to practice medicine and the third received a formal reprimand.

The decision to overrule the disciplinary board that punished the doctors was made by Pheu Thai member and Minister of Public Health, Somsak. Already, Thai doctors are rebelling against the Minister of Public Health. Dr. Prayong Temchawala has called on doctors across Thailand to sign a petition to remove Somsak from his office. Meanwhile 45 doctors at Chulalongkorn University have also called for Somsak’s resignation.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Thaksin has political problems as well. Several of Thaksin’s old allies are saying he should serve his jail time. And of particular concern, former bitter enemies, Sondhi Limthongkul and Jatuporn Prompan, have joined together to oppose Thaksin. Sondhi had led the anti-Thaksin movement and Jatuporn had been a Red Shirt leader supporter of Thaksin. Now they both want him out of Thai politics.

And while all of this is going on, Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai have been at each other’s throats since they teamed up. There are several conversations going on about how Pheu Thai might kick Bhumjaithai out of the coalition and find a bunch of smaller parties to make up the votes. But after every news story about the conflict between the two, they both say they love each other and there’s no rift between them.

However, now the press has been pointing out that Bhumhaithai seems to be friendly with People’s Party recently. People’s Party was the party with the most votes (when they were previously named Move Forward) but they exhausted their prime minister candidates. This time around they could partner with someone like Bhumjaithai which would give Bhumjaithai the prime ministership since People’s Party has no PM candidate.

Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute speculated that as crazy as it sounds, People Party and Bhumjaithai might partner. People’s Party can’t really do anything from the opposition so this could be an opportunity for them to get back in the game.

And for anyone who thinks there’s no way the two of them get together, Thanaporn points out that the hatred of what Thaksin is doing is strong enough to bring mortal enemies Sondhi and Jatuporn on stage hugging, so why not Bhumjaithai and People’s Party. People’s Party could sell this to their supporters as the only option to rid Thailand of the Shinawatras.

If that isn’t bad enough for Thaksin, all is not good for Thailand in general and that may also lead to an early exit for the Shinawatras. Tourism down, exports down, manufacturing down, etc.

It was a huge wakeup call for Thailand when it was recently announced that while tourism in Thailand was faltering, record numbers in surrounding countries means people are specifically skipping Thailand as a tourist destination.

And that comes on the heels of the government being served up several big losses on their big casino project which the government was hoping would help turn around tourism. The public has been overwhelmingly against the casino projects and the list of experts that have come out against it grows larger by the day. Even if Pheu Thai wins and gets their casino, they lose in the court of public opinion.

Pheu Thai has also recently announced that due to economic uncertainty that they are cancelling the 10,000 baht handout.

This has lead to several Thai media outlets to speculate if an early departure for the prime minister might be coming. Various outlets have been dancing around the subject but nobody is saying the “C” word (coup) just quite yet. For now the focus has been on a cabinet reshuffle, whether or not Bhumjaithai will get kicked out of the coalition government, etc.

Thai politics never stays dull for too long.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

It’s been a while since my last newsletter, so let’s see if I still remember how to do this.

To be honest, there hasn’t been a ton to write about recently. News on the new cannabis bill has been as rare as a perfectly rolled joint. Ever since Anutin and Pheu Thai agreed to let him take the wheel on drafting the bill, updates have been… let’s say, “subtle.”

In theory, the new law was supposed to land before the end of 2024 under PM Srettha’s government. But with Srettha unceremoniously ousted, cannabis seems to have fallen off the political radar—for now. And you know what? That might actually be a good thing.

So, before we dive into what’s next, let’s take a moment to look back at the year that was and peek ahead at 2025.

2024: A Wild Ride for Thai Cannabis

If 2024 were a strain, it’d be called “Uncertainty OG.” From shifting political winds to growing pains in the industry, this year felt like one long balancing act—opportunity versus responsibility, hope versus reality. But amidst all the chaos, there’s a sense that the foundation for something bigger is starting to solidify.

Shifting Gears on Policy

The year kicked off with whispers of re-criminalization as PM Srettha raised concerns about recreational cannabis use. Advocates and industry leaders weren’t having it, though. They pushed back hard, and soon the focus shifted toward regulation instead of prohibition.

Anutin’s draft bill emphasizes medical use while aiming to bring some order to the current free-for-all. Recreational use? Still a gray area, as always. (Let’s not even get into how “recreational” is defined—it’s like arguing about what counts as “spicy” in Thai food.)

The bottom line? Thailand seems to be leaning toward rules that are stricter but still allow the industry to thrive in some capacity.

Debates and Decisions

Cannabis sparked some of the year’s fiercest debates, with the Pheu Thai Party advocating for tighter controls and Bhumjaithai doubling down on cannabis’ economic and medical potential. Meanwhile, pro-cannabis groups took to the streets, arguing that weed is less harmful than booze or cigarettes. Their message? Evidence-based policy > fear-driven bans.

On the ground, dispensary owners and growers scrambled to adapt. Some closed shop; others doubled down. Public polling revealed a mixed bag of opinions: many Thais support regulated medical cannabis but remain skeptical about recreational use. The message was clear—people want thoughtful regulation, not chaos.

If anything, the positive message to take away from the Srettha-Anutin battle in 2024 was that even people/groups that weren’t pro-cannabis and felt like cannabis had gone too far, weren’t necessarily pushing to end access to cannabis. Many saw the financial impact on businesses, some looked at how a u-turn around look to foreign investors, and some just felt like there was a middle-path between no laws and total prohibition.

The Industry: Growing Pains

Despite the uncertainty, the cannabis industry in Thailand continued to grow. Dispensaries flourished, with some even projecting the market to hit $1.2 billion by 2025. Big brands like DOPE entered the scene, and medical cannabis programs expanded to rural areas.

But it wasn’t all sunshine and sativa. Fraudulent schemes popped up, idiots got busted doing idiotic things while high, and small growers felt the squeeze of falling prices and rising competition. The market is maturing, but not everyone is making the cut.

On the bright side, Thailand earned a major badge of honor with Asia’s first GACP-certified cannabis farm. Progress may be slow, but it’s happening.

Looking Ahead to 2025

As we step into 2025, the cannabis landscape is gearing up for what I like to call “The Big Reset.” The new laws (whenever they drop) will likely weed out underperforming businesses, leaving room for serious players to dominate. Expect the market to split into “Haves” and “Have-Nots,” with well-funded dispensaries expanding and smaller ones quietly bowing out or finding a niche bigger shops neglect.

Adding to the pressure, June 9, 2025, marks three years since legalization. Many leases are up for renewal (as are cannabis licenses), and with shrinking profit margins, the industry is bracing for some tough calls. Small growers are getting hammered, and industrial-scale operations are stepping in to fill the gap.

But wait, that’s not doom and gloom. Far from it. That’s just what happens in new markets. There’s a sudden gold rush and then margins tighten and there’s consolidation leaving fewer businesses but those businesses tend to be financially healthier and in it for the long haul.

When the new laws take effect, expect a few high-profile police raids—probably starting with some mom-and-pop shops in the provinces before moving on to bigger targets. It’ll be a PR spectacle to show the government means business, but as with most crackdowns in Thailand, it’ll likely fade into the background soon after.

Political Wild Cards

And let’s not forget the political drama. Thaksin Shinawatra looms large, with whispers of a coup growing louder by the day. PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is already being called “Paetongphoey” (a jab at her reliance on scripted iPad statements), and it’s clear many in the media believe that she’s PM in name only.

If a no-confidence vote or a coup shakes up the government, Anutin and Bhumjaithai could find themselves back in the driver’s seat. What happens next? Your guess is as good as mine, but cannabis might not be the top priority in 2025’s political theater.

And, again, that’s a good thing. The more normalized cannabis becomes and the less people freak out, the more we move towards societal acceptance.

The Road Ahead

The days of unregulated growth are ending, and the industry is entering a phase of consolidation and maturity. Some dispensaries will thrive; others will fade away. Wholesale prices may drop further, but profit margins are already razor-thin so not all of those price drops will filter down to consumers.

Still, with clearer laws, expanded medical programs, and a market poised for international recognition, 2025 could be a turning point. Actually, I think 2025 will likely end up more as a transitionary year. People need time to digest what the new laws mean for profitability and realign their businesses. That means 2026 is more likely to be the year that we see the results of those realignments.

So, that’s the state of things. Here’s to a greener, hopefully calmer, 2025. As always, I could be wrong—but hey, it wouldn’t be the first time. 😉

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

The political and legal developments surrounding cannabis legalization in Thailand have been eerily quiet the last few weeks.  Maybe those responsible were channeling some Halloween spirit.

That said, some things have happened recently that could have an impact so I thought I would mention them here.

First up is the avalanche of petitions to dissolve the Pheu Thai Party under the umbrella of Thaksin having too much influence over the party.  While a few serial petition filers were expected to make complaints, even more petitions have landed on the government’s doorstep and they’ve agreed to look into whether or not Thaksin has an illegal level of influence over the Pheu Thai political party.

While, at the moment, the main smoking gun petitioners have cited is the fact that the party leaders met immediately with Thaksin after Srettha was booted as PM, expect more drama to follow.

This is worth watching because if Pheu Thai does get dissolved, Bhumjaithai would likely be given the reigns to form a new government as the third largest party, with both larger parties unable to submit a PM candidate without a new election (Pheu Thai has one more candidate but they already didn’t put him forward previously due to concerns he wouldn’t pass the ethics scrutiny).

Speaking of Bhumjaithai a few media sources have talked about the Blue Wall in the senate.  Many procedural and other measures like amending the charter have to go through the senate and Bhumjaithai has enough of their people in the Senate that they are essentially a blue wall against anything they don’t agree with.

They likely won’t be able to parlay that into cannabis related issues because most cannabis laws won’t go through the senate but they can use it as a bargaining chip on cannabis related issues in the house with parties that have issues that do need to go through the senate.

Before I move on from Thai politics, it’s been becoming increasingly apparent that Future Forward Move Forward People’s Party owes a lot of its popularity to people like Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Pita Limjaroenrat, both of whom are unable to lead the party anytime soon.  They’ve lost two smaller elections, with one of those being a supposed easy win for People’s Party that they somehow managed to lose.

The party’s new leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut seems to lack the charisma and popularity of his predecessors and it’s showing in how motivated voters are at the polls.

When there is a new election, either called early due to politics or at the end of the normal term, it will be interesting to see where People’s Party shakes out.

Lastly, in news type coverage, there was an excellent article in The Diplomat which was discussing investigations that have been happening in the Philippines over former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s infamous drug war.  Some human rights groups estimate that as many as 30,000 people were killed extrajudicially under Duterte’s war.   

For those who may have forgotten, Thaksin was the OG of giving the police free rein to murder anyone they suspected was involved in illegal drugs.  Under his war or drugs, it was estimated that 3,000 people were killed.

Now, on to some recent observations about the cannabis industry.

I was having a conversation with a dispensary owner the other day and he informed me that a fellow dispensary owner we both knew had died in a motorcycle accident earlier this year.

His dispensary was one of the ones listed in the Dank Deals offer in the CannabisThailand sub.  In fact, he may have been the very first person to reach out to me about offering a promotion for sub members.

I had visited his shop a few times and my wife and I hung out with him and his wife on several occasions. A really great guy who will be missed in the cannabis industry.   

With the news of his death I decided to update Dank Deals to remove his shop as it no longer exists.

However, I also checked on the rest of the Dank Deal vendors and most of them no longer exist either.

Over the last few months several of the sites that I regularly check for cannabis retail pricing information have also disappeared.  Some have simply taken their menus offline while others have vanished entirely.

I see similar carnage on social media with Instagram, Facebook, etc pages gone.  Ditto with dispensary listing websites.

I can attribute some of the cannabis rapture to the fact that many sites are beginning to make peace with the fact that all online advertising will become illegal once the new cannabis bill passes.   Technically, it’s already illegal but the new cannabis bill means people can be fined and thrown in jail so suddenly the government has dispensary owner’s attention.

Many of the dead social media accounts I’ve been running across are no more because they couldn’t refrain from violating the platform’s rules.  Even we got erased by Discord when they decided to delete the channel we had for licensed dispensaries and growers to connect.  Many sites don’t play around when it comes to weed.

But, most of these disappearing dispensaries are simply gone.  Domains are popping up expired on my watchlist almost daily which means they’re not even keeping the brand in the hopes of selling it.   

While the first couple of years of legalization was a more or less a gold rush expansion, now it seems we’re entering a contraction phase.

https://www.britannica.com/money/stages-of-economic-cycle

This is quite normal.  I’ve worked in several emerging industries in my previous life and there’s always the phase where people are throwing money in every direction trying to get big fast, followed by a painful contraction where the least viable businesses disappear.

I’m sure most people have seen this in other contexts as well.  For instance, remember when travel vlogging first became a thing?  Suddenly there were hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of Thailand travel vloggers who had spent 2 months in Thailand and felt qualified to educate people on Thai culture.  Then most of them disappeared because they couldn’t turn their drone and endless B-roll footage into cash.

Travel vlogging didn’t cease to exist but it became obvious that the market was oversaturated and could only support so many channels producing content.   

Similarly, there’s an optimal level of competition in retail and beyond that it actually becomes harmful to both the seller and buyer.

For example, let’s say that you own the only dispensary on your soi and the total potential revenue from local foot traffic is around 10,000 baht per day (just to keep the math simple).  That’s not what you sell everyday, that’s the potential market size in your area.

Now, let’s say that another shop opens, and assuming you’re somewhat equal in nature, your potential gross sales just decreased to 5,000 baht per day because there aren’t more customers, just more choices for customers.

But a third shop just opened and now your potential gross sales just dropped to 3,333 baht per day.

See where this is going?

Most consumers probably think this is a good thing.  All three dispensaries will be tripping over each other to get your business, right?  Well, maybe not.

Those three dispensaries are paying rent at three locations and hiring staff at each location.  In other words, their combined overhead is 3x what it would be for one shop.

If the total market size is 10,000 baht a day and one’s daily overhead (rent, utilities, payroll, taxes, etc) is 2,000 baht a day, that leaves a nice 8,000 baht margin (remember cost of goods sold is not part of daily overhead).

But with two shops, the market size remains static at 10,000 baht per day but now the overhead for two shops is 4,000 baht a day and that 8,000 is now 6,000.

With a third shop, overhead goes to 6,000 a day and market size remains static at 10,000 baht a day meaning there’s only 4,000 baht to be split between the three shops.

Guess which situation is better for consumers, the one where the shop is making a comfortable margin of 8,000 baht per day or one of the three shops barely staying afloat on a 1,333 baht a day.     

The other thing to keep in mind is that now each individual dispensary is buying in smaller quantities and not able to command better pricing from suppliers.  Again, that gets passed on to the consumer.

Ultimately, the goal would be an equilibrium where there are exactly enough dispensaries where everyone can survive but those who thrive will be the ones with the best business model.

Don’t worry, I’m not suggesting that the government should create a scheme to limit dispensaries or pick winners and losers.  The market will do that part naturally.  As they say, the cream rises to the top.

I am just trying to convey that this is happening and will continue to happen over the next few months, perhaps even the next year or two.  It’s not a sign of a decline, rather a healthy contraction after a period of massive expansion.

And closures will likely accelerate once the new laws come into effect as already failed businesses use the new laws as an excuse to save face and close down.

The draft of the law I saw said that current license holders had 180-days to comply with the new licensing and is expected to come into effect Jan 1, 2025, which coincides with the three year anniversary of cannabis being legal and three years just happens to be the standard contract length for a commercial lease.

Many of those landlords that gave sweet deals to the early dispensaries due to the fact that tourism hadn’t recovered from Covid yet and many landlords hadn’t seen a rent check in several years.  Now with all of the hoopla about how much money the weed business has been making, expect landlords to be jacking up rents to current market rates (or higher).

This is the part of the business cycle when operations becomes the most important aspect of success.  The dispensaries that are able to efficiently use capital to grow marketshare while smaller competitors close shop will succeed.  The dispensaries that know how to keep overhead costs low by systematizing processes and creating easy to replicate operating procedures will thrive.

So when we begin to see shops close and various businesses suddenly vanish, we need to keep in mind that this is as normal as rain during rainy season.  That’s how the market is supposed to work.

The thing to keep an eye on is demand.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

Ung-Ing seems to have spent most of this week getting her cabinet in order but we now have a functioning government.  Of course, I use with word “functioning” rather loosely in that description.  

While some seemingly unimportant (to cannabis users) jobs got swapped around it appears that the biggest change here was booting Palang Pracharath Party in exchange for the Democrat Party.  

I have to say, as someone that lived in the Ratchaprasong District during the 2010 Red Shirt Protests and having watched military and police battle with Red Shirt protesters literally in front of my condo, it is a little surprising to see Thaksin and Democrats on the same side of the aisle.  

In terms of what this means for cannabis, the Democrats were part of the reason the cannabis bill got shot down last time it was up for consideration but I’m not sure they’ll make a stink this time around.  

I was a little confused about how this was reported but I do believe both Anutin and Ung-Ing have separately said that the cannabis policy will continue under the agreement made by Anutin with former prime minister Srettha.  That means that Anutin will be allowed to present a bill to be considered by parliament.  

It would be foolish for the Democrats, with so little power, to try to make a stink in a coalition that they could be easily kicked out of.  Last time around their rejection of the cannabis bill was seen as a way to hurt Bhumjaithai going into the elections, not necessarily a burning hatred of weed (they actually supported the bill in a previous reading).  

Keep in mind that many Pheu Thai voters are the very same people that were once in front of my condo in 2010 and back then they wanted Abhisit’s (and the entire Democrat Party) head on a platter.  I still remember Abhisit’s face printed on flip flops and signs saying “Abhisit is a murderer.”  In other words, it doesn’t seem wise for the Democrats to cause too much friction otherwise many former red shirts might start demanding that Pheu Thai get rid of them.

Likewise, many Democrat Party voters and many Democrat MPs aren’t exactly thrilled with the party teaming up with their old enemy, Thaksin.  The party was already in turmoil before this announcement and this certainly won’t be helping things.  Several prominent party members have either resigned or voiced their concerns in public.  

Speaking of voter demands, as we discussed in previous newsletters, Pheu Thai appears to be using Srettha’s ousting as a giant reset button.  They’ve already announced that they’re reworking the digital wallet scheme, household debt, and several other big initiatives.  

Basically they’re not publicly throwing Srettha under the bus (yet) but they’re using the reset as an excuse to reprioritize and reconfigure.  

Oh wait, have we talked about PPRP (Palang Pracharath Party), the party that got the boot?  Analysts believe that Prawit was the one stirring up trouble for Pheu Thai and may have been the one behind Srettha’s charges that saw him lose the PM position.  

He and his borrowed collection of exotic timepieces are definitely not going anywhere and he’s no longer going to be hiding in the shadows when he takes his shots at Thaksin.  

And that means that the axe still swings over Pheu Thai’s head.  Already we have the usual serial complainers filing complaints that Pheu Thai is influenced by Thaksin and that charge will hang over the party’s head as long as Thaksin still breathes.  In other words, Pheu Thai could be dissolved as a party at any moment should Thaksin decide to step on the wrong toes.  

So, as always, what does this mean for cannabis?  

At the moment, it appears that Pheu Thai will allow Anutin and BJT to write a cannabis bill.

As I mentioned back when a lot of this first began, the best option for Pheu Thai or Move Forward once they gained power was to pass a weak cannabis bill, declare victory over recreational use, and let the issue die.  

That seems to be the path that Pheu Thai is taking.  

Anutin has been talking about strict medicinal use only, but technically, all cannabis use in Thailand has been medicinal since 2022.  In other words, don’t read too much into it.  

Thailand is simply not ready to embrace the word “recreational” yet.  Thai voters strongly support medicinal use and strongly oppose recreational use so any new bill will call itself medicinal regardless of how strict or lenient it is.  

Like many words, it’s one that gets somewhat lost in translation between English and Thai.  Many westerners have a specific image in their head of what medicinal means because that is how medicinal has been defined where they’re from.  But Thailand will define medicinal however it wants and it doesn’t have to resemble western medicinal use at all.  

We still don’t know what any of that looks like though so, as usual, we’ll have to wait until Anutin’s bill makes it into the public. 

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

Things have gone a little quiet in cannabis-land this week.  

The main news of interest in terms of where things are headed with cannabis is the backlash Thaksin has received recently.  I don’t know if Pheu Thai is trying to create the impression that the new prime minister Ung-Ing is her own woman, Thaksin has gone off the deep end, or some combination of both.  

On Thursday of this week former prime minister and ex-convict Thaksin gave a speech where he sounded a lot like a prime minister talking about programs the government planned to roll out and what the government’s focus was.  

That’s all well and good except for his daughter is the actual prime minister, not him.  

Surprisingly (sarcasm intended) many Thais think that Thaksin is running the government using his daughter as a proxy as he is prohibited from participating in the government.  

I guess if you were in Thailand under Thaksin and then after Thaksin and then when Yingluck was PM, you kind of know that Thaksin, despite being one hell of a politician, seemingly has impulse control issues and his governments or those of fellow Shinawatra’s tend to end in a coup as he likes to push things to the brink to see if the other side will blink.  So far, he’s 0-2 on that and everything points to him extending that record to 0-3 if he continues down this road.  

And I say that with all due respect.  The guy politicians.  He’s proposed and implemented many popular programs in Thailand that are still around today like the current universal healthcare scheme.  At one time his party was crushing it with 60% of the popular vote.  

But, at the moment, the progressive, democracy seeking Thais seem to favor People’s Party (the party formerly known as Move Forward).  The party has captured the imagination and passion of the younger generations who never knew Thaksin or only got a small sample of Shinawatra politics.  

That’s very problematic to Pheu Thai because Thaksin is 75 years old so he’s unlikely to vibe with the younger generations and leaves him only a base of supporters that are aging out and dying.  

And in a poll reported on yesterday, 37.79% of Thais said Thaksin should have no role in the government and should not try to run it from behind the scenes but can offer general advice to Ung Ing.  26.95% said Thaksin should have no role in the government, nor run things from behind the scenes, nor should he be giving any advice to Ung Ing.  

That’s 64.74% that want Thaksin out of Thai politics. 

And before they published the results of this poll, this entire weekend has been full of stories of people slamming Thaksin for his speech on Thursday.  

Facing backlash over Thaksin’s speech, Ung Ing declared, "I insist he is not trying to dominate. I can think for myself.”

Meanwhile Thaksin’s former ally, former Red Shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan, pointedly asked, "Should we really allow a person convicted of corruption to gain power over the state?"

Legal scholar Jade Donavanik also had sharp words, "In particular, Ms Paetongtarn could be in trouble if Pheu Thai, of which she is the leader, allows itself to be controlled and influenced by Thaksin.”

And it’s not like Ung Ing doesn’t have her own problems to contend with.  She’s accused of being knee deep in the Alpine Golf Club scandal which will likely start dominating the news as the case progresses.  

To add a little cherry on top of all of this, if it is deemed that Thakin is exercising too much control over the Pheu Thai Party, the entire party can be dissolved under the Political Parties Act which prohibits outside influence over a political party.  

It appears that Thaksin is being boxed in by his enemies.  Worse, they’re setting out traps and inviting him to test their resolve.  

The dismissal of Srettha was seen by most political analysts as a warning to Thaksin.  Indicting Thaksin on lèse-majesté charges and then pushing out the decision was further meant to send the message that Thaksin is on a short leash and should mind his behavior.  

The warnings he’s received across the political spectrum this weekend seem to indicate that people want to remind Thaksin that his daughter is now fair game and that his actions could bring her down as well.  

In fact, a petition to the Election Commission has already asked for Pheu Thai Party to be dissolved due to Thaksin exerting influence over the party.  

I mentioned in a previous newsletter that Thaksin had make a public remark to the effect that he would tell Srettha to set up a meeting that seemed awfully like a government level meeting.  

Thaksin also said he had talked to Mr Srettha and told him to call a meeting of economic ministers as soon as he returns to Thailand from his overseas trips. The meeting will take place on Monday. 

Kind of hard to claim you’re not influencing the current government when you tell the press you’re ordering the prime minister to set up meetings with the economic ministers.  

And that is where this complaint will come down to.  Technically the law says “control, dominate or instruct.” not simply “influence” the party.  That is a much higher burden of proof but Thaksin does have a way of offering his opponents exactly the proof they need.  

Given what we’ve seen only since Thaksin has returned to Thailand, it does appear Thaksin is on a collision course with the elites who hold all of the levers of government they need in order to remove him and his daughter from any sort of role in running the country.  

Of course, since every week someone asks on the subreddit, “how does this apply to cannabis?” I can only say that should Ung Ing be unable to complete her tenure as prime minister the next most likely candidate at the moment is pro-cannabis Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin.  

Pheu Thai is sort of out of prime minister candidates.  Technically they have one left but he was nominated and then had the nomination retracted due to some prior issues which Pheu Thai felt might disqualify him from the prime minister spot.  

That means that Pheu Thai put up three prime minister candidates during the elections, Srettha who has been removed and ineligible to run again, Ung Ing who may or may not be removed, and Chaikasem who Pheu Thai withdrew from nomination.  

They could re-run Chaikasem which would not look good because they already admitted he might be disqualified and they just had a prime minister who was removed from office for nominating someone to office who was disqualified.  

As far as the cannabis community is concerned, it would appear at first glance that the most desirable outcome is for Thaksin to go too far and have Ung Ing removed from office or have the entire Pheu Thai Party dissolved which would create a scramble to pick a new PM which Anutin has a decent chance of winning.  

Second best outcome would be that Thaksin and Anutin have decided to bury the hatchet (for now) and Thaksin and Ung Ing sort of forget about cannabis for awhile and allow Anutin to pass a cannabis bill.  

At the moment it looks like the second outcome is the one we currently have developing.  

And, I’m not totally convinced that we want the first outcome.  While Anutin would be the favorite to take the helm of the country, that doesn’t mean he would win.  And if he loses, whoever does become PM could be a total wildcard and we could be right back at a prime minister demanding that cannabis be made illegal again.  

If you’re not the gambling type, Thaksin/Ung-Ing allowing Anutin to pass a cannabis bill is the safer bet.  There are less unknowns.  

Also, on a certain level, I’m not entirely convinced the cannabis movement wins much extra with Anutin in the prime minister’s seat.  There’s still strong public sentiment against recreational use so he’s never going to declare weed is completely legal.  We’ll still likely play the charade where the laws don’t make a strong distinction between medical and recreational and the government can claim Thailand is 100% medical only (wink-wink).  

Of course, if you’ve been reading this newsletter for any amount of time, Thai politics change more often than the weather so we’ll have to keep watching to see where things are headed.  

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

It appears we finally have some significant movement in the ongoing battle for cannabis in Thailand.  

For those who missed it, the Thai courts removed Prime Minister Srettha from office.  One of weed’s biggest opponents is gone from the Thai political scene.  

Honestly, I can’t say that this comes as any surprise.  If you were around for Thaksin’s term as prime minister or his sister’s time as prime minister you’ll likely note that Shinawatra-backed political parties have a predisposition towards artificially shortened terms in office.  

That said, I was surprised that Pheu Thai decided to go with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, aka Ung Ing.  In fact, Pheu Thai initially announced that they would put Chaikasem up for PM but quickly backtracked.  

I saw a few news reports that mentioned that Chaikasem had some political baggage and after Srettha they wanted a PM candidate that would sail through with no obstacles.  Given Ung Ing’s absolute lack of any prior political or governing experience, she was deemed to be the perfect PM candidate to lead Thailand.  

I had put the odds only around 10% or 20%, but I had hoped that Chaikasem would be too old and in poor health to be considered and that everyone would scoff at Ung Ing due to her lack of experience which would mean Pheu Thai would be forced to strike some sort of deal with Anutin to retain certain cabinet positions in exchange for supporting him for PM.

Instead we’ve got Ung Ing.  But for how long?  Given the Shinawatra family history with the prime ministership, her completing a full term in office is far from guaranteed.  In fact, many of the social media comments in English and Thai have joked that the countdown to the next coup just started.  

Even the old Red Shirt warrior and former close ally of Thaksin, Jatuporn Prompan, said that Ung Ing would probably be removed from power by early next year.  

He gave a list of “old wounds” that can resurface to compromise Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s legal and constitutional legitimacy. Among them is curious ownerships of the previous Alpine Golf Course, which had led to a big political scandal that blew up in many Pheu Thai faces.

Some conservative analysts or activists have said the same thing. They think Alpine can undermine Paetongtarn, with official complaints seeking to remove her certain to be launched.

But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet, what does this mean for cannabis?  

Well, I have good news and bad news.  

Let’s start with the bad news.  

Ung Ing has not had nice things to say about cannabis in the past.  

“As a mother, I do not want my children to grow up in a country where narcotics run rampant and cannabis is easily available …”

That’s was said in March 2023 and she has not said anything since then that would indicate her opinion has softened.  

Now for the good news.  

First off, I’m not confident that Ung Ing will be a competent enough leader to thwart someone like Anutin.  Sure, she will be getting expert advice from Thaksin but look at the difficulty Srettha had and he was at least an accomplished business executive before getting into politics and had Thaksin’s advice available to him as well.  

However, more importantly, I don’t see how Pheu Thai retained the PM spot without making some serious concessions.  They got the coalition’s unqualified endorsement on the first round of voting which means Pheu Thai had already locked up the votes long before the votes were even cast.  

Pheu Thai announced one PM candidate, Chaikasem, and then quickly retracted Chaikasem and said Ung Ing was the PM candidate.

That likely means that Pheu Thai had support for any candidate that they wanted to put forward. They could have announced a bowl of rice and the coalition partners would have voted for it.

That would seem to indicate that Pheu Thai likely had made contingency plans weeks ago in case Srettha was removed from office. 

I find it difficult to believe that Thaksin and Anutin playing golf together just prior to the verdict on Srettha was a coincidence.  Something was traded during that round of golf and I highly doubt it was simply old war stories or somtam recipes.  

Replacing Srettha with Ung Ing allows Pheu Thai to pin the party’s failures on Srettha and come out acting like with him out of the way they can get down to delivering for the Thai people.  It’s a reset, if you will.  

And that’s a good thing.

All Ung Ing has to do is say nothing and allow Anutin to pass a cannabis control bill and this whole thing sort of disappears for Pheu Thai.  And if people complain that it’s not enough, blame Anutin and then go full drug war mode.  

Pheu Thai was taking a lot of heat for the Srettha anti-cannabis policy because, IMHO, Pheu Thai misread the polling data.  Yes, most Thais are against recreational use but they aren’t looking for another drug war either.  Most Thais are old enough to remember the last one.

It was also interesting to see how the media coverage changed as the actual repercussions of re-criminalizing cannabis became more clear.  Even the large news organizations like the Bangkok Post were eventually writing editorials about how reversing course made no sense and that they should just regulate and tax it.  

I think that’s where Pheu Thai got it wrong.  I think most Thais just wanted it reigned in and Pheu Thai went scorched earth instead.

That’s why I have long held the position that Thaksin and Srettha never cared about cannabis. It was always just a bargaining chip. Their zeal to criminalize it and place harsh penalties on users didn’t match up with public sentiment.

This new situation they find themselves in allows them to take a step back, do nothing, and then take all of the credit once Anutin passes a cannabis bill and the industry is reigned in a little bit.

Bottom line is that this is a net positive for cannabis.  

But the real test as to how close we are to the end of this battle will be in seeing what the new cabinet will look like.  

The role Anutin ends up in will be very telling but I’m particularly interested in who is tapped to head the Ministry of Public Health.

While Anutin has been effective as Minister of the Interior which includes Thai law enforcement, using his position to fend off attempts at re-criminalization, if Pheu Thai gives a Bhumjaithai MP the Minister of Public Health spot, Pheu Thai has effectively raised the white flag on war against cannabis.  

That said, I’m making no predictions of that.  I’m just pointing out that once we hear what the new cabinet looks like we might be able to piece together a little more about what deals may have been made and what is likely to follow.

Regardless, even if Somsak is still in charge of the MoPH, that in itself is not a reason to immediately begin worrying. Somsak is an experienced politician and knows which way the wind is blowing. If he’s told to stand down, he’ll stand down. This was never a personal crusade for him.

While I’m generally optimistic about the future of cannabis in Thailand right now, I again want to reiterate that now is not the time to take the foot off the gas pedal for cannabis activism.  

Like I said in the last newsletter, “We will always be at risk of losing cannabis again if we don’t do more to educate people and dispute anti-cannabis propaganda.”

You have to build on your gains, not rest on your laurels.   

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

You may have noticed I took some time off recently.  I just felt like there wasn’t anything new to talk about and the weekly updates were beginning to feel too forced.

I really enjoy writing these updates when there’s something to update people about but I find it difficult to get excited about saying, “Well, not much has changed this week.” LOL.  

However, it does appear that we’ve seen some significant movement recently so let’s jump in . . . 

Minister of the Interior, and cannabis community hero (at least for now), Anutin, announced that he had spoken with Thaksin and Srettha and they had agreed to take a regulation approach rather than prohibition.  

But before we look forward, I want to take a quick look back.  In the May 27 newsletter I listed Anutin and Thaksin burying the hatchet as a potential outcome:

Thaksin is forced to negotiate with Bhumjaithai for something he wants like getting Yingluck back, BJT staying in the coalition so as to avoid Pheu Thai losing control, the digital wallet scheme, etc. 

And I put this outcome on equal footing with Pheu Thai losing control of the government (which also still may happen) in terms of likelihood:

The most realistic scenarios are Pheu Thai losing control of the government and Thaksin being forced to negotiate.  

That is why I tend to lean into the politics as much as I do in this newsletter.  The cannabis community’s best options are tied to Pheu Thai or Thaksin playing themselves into a bad political position over something not cannabis related where they either lose control or are forced to negotiate. 

I don’t mention this because I want to point out that I was right, I point it out because I think it’s important to understand the logic that got us here because it shapes where things go next.  

Personally, I don’t believe Thaksin or Srettha ever cared about cannabis.  They really stood very little to gain in terms of advancing an agenda that the Thai people would benefit from.  From the very beginning this was all about Pheu Thai creating value from nothing.  

If Pheu Thai said nothing about cannabis and Anutin had been able to pass a bill with light regulation what incentive would Anutin have to support Pheu Thai on other issues?  

Thaksin was able to create value by recognizing that Anutin would fight for weed, so if Thaksin could make it appear that Anutin’s cannabis legalization was in jeopardy he could cash in that chip in exchange for Anutin support.  

And while some people, even myself on a few occasions, felt like Anutin wasn’t doing enough at times, I do believe he played his cards perfectly here.  He remained respectful knowing that eventually Thaksin had to come to the negotiating table.  

Not gonna lie though, Anutin’s nonchalant attitude did have me worried at times.  

That’s the thing about politics though, it’s a game of incomplete information.  You don’t know what the other side knows and you don’t know what they think you know, or what they think you think they think you know.  And if you’re just trying to make sense of what’s going on, well, that’s even more difficult.  

Which brings up an alternative theory that The Nation recently reported on which pegs Anutin as a possible next prime minister should Srettha be removed as PM.  

That sort of fits with my previously mentioned theory of Pheu Thai losing control of the government but The Nation seems to have details about how the process would work that I was not fully aware of when I originally suggested that parliament would be forced to vote for a new prime minister.  

For instance, I was unaware that the new prime minister would be required to have been up for the prime minister role in the last election.  

That means that there are five people who are eligible to become prime minister.  

• Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party

• Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Pheu Thai Party candidate

• Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior, and leader of the Bhumjaithai Party

• General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party

• Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Energy and leader of the United Thai Nation Party.

As I’ve noted in previous newsletters, Paetongtarn is a no-go.  Paetongtarn has said publicly she doesn’t feel ready for the role.  She also doesn’t have very much public support and is seen by many as being inexperienced in politics.  

Chaikasem who?  He’s not that popular and has health problems that would likely keep him from becoming prime minister.  

Prawit and Pirapan would also have problems getting enough votes.  

That leaves Anutin as the PM candidate that has the best chance of taking the spot.  

This brings a new level of intrigue regarding Thaksin and Anutin’s recent meeting and the about-face on cannabis by Thaksin.  

Thaksin may be trying to cash in that political chip and keep his own political ambitions from being completely wiped out.  

Bhumjaithai picked up a lot of the seats in the recent senate elections, and while the senate has less power to stand in the way of a prime minister appointment like they did for Move Forward’s Pita, Bhumjaithai has increased its own power in parliament.  

And as The Nation pointed out, if Move Forward is dissolved on Aug 7, Bhumjaithai has been mopping up Move Forward defectors and would be a likely choice for members of the largest party to move to if their party no longer existed.  

In this completely speculative scenario, Bhumjaithai could pick up enough MPs to overtake Pheu Thai in seats in parliament making it the largest political party in parliament.

That may be Thaksin’s play here.  While his bargaining chip still has value, he may be trying to secure a deal which doesn’t completely shut Pheu Thai out.  

Clearly, the Move Forward Party members who felt Pheu Thai stabbed them in the back joining Bhumjaithai would be a deathblow to Thaksin’s ambitions for the short and medium term.  

So, making a deal with Anutin prior to the decision on whether Move Forward will be permitted to exist is a wise move as Anutin would have no incentive to bargain with Pheu Thai if he suddenly finds Bhumjaithai with more MPs than Pheu Thai and is able to form a coalition party without Pheu Thai.     

We still don’t know how the cannabis bill will look when it finally reaches a vote though.  And we don’t even know if Srettha will still be the prime minister or if Pheu Thai party will be leading the coalition government.  

So, it’s not quite over yet but we’re in a position where things are more likely to get better than what Srettha was promising just a few days ago.  

As I pointed out in the previous newsletter, barring something that prevents an Anutin bill from being approved, it’s a pretty safe bet that recreational isn’t happening for a bit.  

The most likely outcome at the moment is that we see what I’m referring to as Soft Medical bill.  And I define Soft Medical as, needing to obtain some sort of medical exam and adding some sort of pretense of medicinal use.  We will also likely see additional restrictions on where cannabis can be consumed in public as that seemed to be a major sticking point for many people opposed to cannabis.     

We simply won’t know until we see a proposal.  

Regardless, I think this entire ordeal has been a wake up call for some.  Many people jumped in thinking it would rain down green gold on them, but found out the hard way that when you have a dispensary every 10 meters and anybody with land can grow weed, it’s a brutally tough business.  

I still think we’ll continue to see consolidation in the industry as the barely profitable and unprofitable businesses close their doors.  

Likewise, cannabis consumers may be in for a little bad news as well.  One thing that has held police at bay the last two years is the fact that there are no laws.  Once there are laws, those laws can be enforced.  

For instance, refusing to show a passport to purchase weed is likely to become a thing of the past.  The police are likely to be far less tolerant of people smoking in public.  Things like edibles may disappear as the vast majority of manufacturers are making their products illegally.  

We all were able to enjoy a period of relatively zero law enforcement.  Adjusting to this new era may come as a bit of a shock to some people who have been operating with the mindset that everything is legal.  

But there’s an upside to that too.  Hopefully, once all of the legality questions have been put to bed, perhaps we’ll see more investment, more openness from banks to provide better banking products to dispensaries, and more legitimacy of the overall industry.  

However, we should avoid the mistakes from the current era as well.  

For instance, people grossly underestimated the lack of support for recreational cannabis use in Thailand.  I don’t care what the deniers say, Thais, generally, don’t like recreational cannabis.  That is simply a fact. There have been multiple polls from NIDA, a top polling group in Thailand, confirming this.  And those numbers have been confirmed by other polling groups that have shown similar results.  

But that isn’t surprising.  Thailand started from a different place than most countries that have legalized cannabis.  Because of the overly harsh penalties for drug use, not a lot of Thais were smoking weed prior to legalization compared to other countries.  

In fact, some researchers feel that Thailand joining the US War on Drugs back in the 1960s and cracking down on cannabis growers in Thailand is what caused many Thais to switch to the more widely available yaba (meth) as their drug of choice.

Only about 4.2% of Thais were cannabis users pre-legalization according to polls done at the time.  Contrast that with the US where over 50% of Americans that had tried cannabis.  Nor is that a recent trend, going back as far as the 1980’s 33% of Americans had tried cannabis before and for Thais it was about 2% even just a few years ago.  

Thais simply didn’t have the same point of reference as many other countries.  They hadn’t tried it and seen for themselves that the government had been lying to them for decades.  

That makes Thais much more susceptible to FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). 

An issue exacerbated by nearly every Thai-language media outlet that covered suspected cannabis related crime for the last two years using phrases like “Ganja crazed man . . .” and “Ganja addicted woman . . . “

There’s no way that anyone that can read Thai (or even has access to a decent translation app) and has looked at these stories can argue that the NIDA polling results aren’t at least somewhat reflective of the tone taken in Thai-language media. 

And that is what the cannabis community needs to be working on as we move forward.  

I remember approaching some Thai cannabis activists after legalization and asking how our subreddit members might be able to contribute to the cannabis movement and was told that there’s nothing to be done, weed is legal, it’s all good.  

But obviously, it wasn’t all good.  

And we risk ending up in a similar situation in months or years when the next politician wants to harness public fear to go after cannabis.  

The next phase, regardless of whatever Anutin’s bill looks like, or whoever is prime minister, needs to focus on educating the Thai public on cannabis.  

So many of the stories both in the English and Thai language media were so devoid of factual information about cannabis it would be comical if it wasn’t so frustrating.  They need to be called out, refuted, and kept in check.  

For instance, the mayor of Bangkok declaring that a man died of a cannabis overdose.  No autopsy results, just his hunch (spoiler alert:  it was eventually deemed a heart attack and he had a pre-existing cardiac condition).  Forget the fact that there isn’t a single fatal overdose on cannabis in recorded human history.  

These stories get out there and proliferate because there was nobody in position to refute them.  

The community needs a group of spokespeople who can target individual journalists (in Thai and English) when they report scientifically inaccurate information and educate them.  The media outlets themselves should likewise be targeted and called to task for not fact checking their stories.  

Unfortunately, the cannabis advocacy groups that existed pre-legalization mostly disbanded.  The new groups that started springing up were more business advocacy groups, mostly focused on issues impacting businesses.  

The Writing Thailand's Cannabis Future cannabis advocacy group is a step in the right direction but, IMHO, it’s too Thai-centric at the moment. 

Given estimates that 90% of cannabis sales are to foreigners, it makes sense to include foreigners in the conversation as well.  

We need advocates that understand that legalization is the beginning of the fight, not the end. 

We have decades of FUD clouding the debate and influencing people’s perceptions of cannabis and that doesn’t disappear when they publish the new law in the Royal Gazette.  

We will always be at risk of losing cannabis again if we don’t do more to educate people and dispute anti-cannabis propaganda.  

That needs to be the next phase in the fight.  

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

My apologies for these newsletters coming out a day late the last few weeks.  It seems every time I sit down to write, more news stories pop up that are related to the topic of the newsletter so I end up doing some rewrites.  

Before we jump into the cannabis news, a quick update on PM Srettha’s struggle to survive his term.  

The hammer dropped pretty hard on Srettha this week.  The Constitutional Court did decide to take up the case as to whether or not Srettha appointing a convicted and disbarred lawyer for a ministry position was unethical.  [CORRECTION:  Last week I said Pichit Chuenban was convicted of trying to bribe the court.  He was actually convicted of contempt of court for that incident.]

The Thai media mentioned that the vote to accept the case, even after Pichit Chuenban resigned his post, is not a good omen for the prime minister.  

First off, the fact that they decided to hear the case after Pichit resigned means they think there’s enough there to continue going after Srettha for even nominating Pichit.  

Second, the vote was 6 to 3 in favor of taking the case which cannot be comforting to Srettha.  

Third, the court ruled 5-4 to let him stay in office which means that he came pretty close to being suspended.  

The Diplomat had an excellent piece on Thaksin’s political nihilism.  Despite being a very detailed article, I would speculate that in addition to the reasons cited by The Diplomat, it does appear as if Thaksin may be beginning to realize that at nearly 75, there are only so many chances he’s going to get in this lifetime so he’s willing to risk anything and everything to accomplish his objectives.  

That’s especially concerning given that the last two times a Shinawatra has held office, they were removed from office in coups.  

The Council on Foreign Relations had a similar article with a headline saying that Pheu Thai promised change but has instead delivered chaos, citing the government’s inability to deliver anything of substance since taking office.  

And the president of the Federation of Thai Industries has noted publicly that this whole court case is causing foreign investors to become hesitant to invest in Thailand due to the unstable government.  

There was a very revealing article in the press where Thaksin said he knows who is behind trying to get Srettha but claims he’s an old man and has nothing to do with politics.  But, more interesting was this quote:

Thaksin also said he had talked to Mr Srettha and told him to call a meeting of economic ministers as soon as he returns to Thailand from his overseas trips. The meeting will take place on Monday. 

He’s not involved in politics but he just rings up the PM and tells him what meetings to schedule and when?  I’m not sure both those statements can be true.  

Academics speculate that the forty senators that filed the complaint against Srettha were firing a shot across the bow aimed at Thaksin to let him know that he can still be checked if he goes too far.  

The theory being that if Srettha is found guilty, they can link Pichit to Thaksin and thus request that the entire Pheu Thai Party be dissolved.  

They also speculate that the senators will blink first on this particular issue (Srettha being removed as PM) simply because if they remove Pheu Thai then MFP will likely attempt to form a government which the senators find even more distasteful than having Thaksin running the show.  

Speaking of Shinawatras, Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, felt it necessary to issue a statement saying that she does not feel she is ready to be prime minister at this time.  

Which is sort of a head scratcher because nobody asked her to become PM.  

This has led some to speculate that Thaksin pushed for Srettha to nominate Pichit knowing that it would backfire and put Srettha in the hot seat and thus clip his wings a bit.  

Of course, Thaksin has denied that.  

However, Srettha has one last card up his sleeve if he’s been unwittingly set up to be the fall guy, he can dissolve the House and force a new election which Pheu Thai would likely lose.  In fact, polls conducted this weekend show that MFP would likely win in a landslide.  

Based on these responses, combining the election of constituency and party-list MPs, the Move Forward party would win 208 seats in the House, followed by 105 for Pheu Thai, 61 for Bhumjaithai, 34 for United Thai Nation, 30 for Palang Pracharath, 22 seats for the Democrats, 10 for Chart Thai Pattana and 9 for Prachachart.

When asked who they want to be the next prime minister, the poll shows 46.9% said Pita, followed by 17.7% for General Prayut Chan-o-cha, 10.5% for Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 8.7% for Srettha Thavisin, 3.3% for Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, 1.7% for Jurin Laksanawisit of Democrat party and 0.4% for General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of Palang Pracharath party.

But this would be the nuclear option for Srettha as he would become persona non grata in Thai politics and he would be dead to Pheu Thai members.  

It does go to show how vulnerable the Pheu Thai and Srettha are right now and that doesn’t take into account what other parties like Bhumjaithai or Move Forward may be planning behind the scenes.  

If I’ve learned one thing from watching Thai politics is that it’s not a good idea to count someone like Anutin out. Politicians like him often play dead but that’s when they’re the most dangerous, and he’s a man that feels like Pheu Thai double-crossed him on cannabis.

Again, like I said last week, I’m not rooting for or against the PM, Pheu Thai, Thaksin, or anyone else.  I’m just trying to point out the facts that often get overlooked in the media.  

Thai media often reports each individual story in a vacuum devoid of obvious connections between stories.  I’m just trying to connect the dots trying to determine the likely outcomes for cannabis.  

Currently, the best outcomes for cannabis are:

• Srettha loses the PM spot which may spook Pheu Thai into ruffling fewer feathers and they back off the harsh language on cannabis since it gets them nothing.

• Pheu Thai loses control of the government which goes to Move Forward or a coalition of conservative parties and a softer bill is passed that basically just closes loopholes 

• Thaksin is forced to negotiate with Bhumjaithai for something he wants like getting Yingluck back, BJT staying in the coalition so as to avoid Pheu Thai losing control, the digital wallet scheme, etc.  

• This whole cannabis recriminalization things gets forgotten about due to other political turmoil.  

The most realistic scenarios are Pheu Thai losing control of the government and Thaksin being forced to negotiate.  

That is why I tend to lean into the politics as much as I do in this newsletter.  The cannabis community’s best options are tied to Pheu Thai or Thaksin playing themselves into a bad political position over something not cannabis related where they either lose control or are forced to neogitate.    

Now for cannabis specific news . . . 

Thailand’s Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin issued a statement that only the bud and flower (you know, the good parts) of the cannabis plant would be relisted as a narcotic.  Smoke all the stems and seeds you want though, I guess.  

He did seem to throw the industry a small lifeline by saying that there would be a transition period but outside of that he didn’t really reveal how any of this will work.  

He also said that a licensing scheme for growers and medical clinics was in the works without giving any further details of substance.  

Benjamin Hart from Integrity Legal has said, given how quickly things move in Thailand, there’s probably no chance the legal status of cannabis will change in 2024 and possibly even the first quarter of 2025 if what Somsak said is accurate.  That also seems to mesh with Srettha’s demand that cannabis be made illegal by April 2025.  

At the moment, I would concur that that seems like the most likely outcome if things go according to the government’s plans.  

I would also echo Hart’s frustration at how the Thai media reports things as if there is no political process that has to be followed.  

Srettha saying he wants to ban recreational cannabis doesn’t mean that recreational cannabis will be banned.  Just like him saying he’s going to give Thai people 10,000 baht didn’t magically make it happen.  

There are, AFAIK, 4 or 5 alternative drafts for a cannabis policy either already submitted to parliament or pending submission.  There should be a process of debate and compromise to pass a bill everyone agrees on.  

The constant media reporting as if the Pheu Thai bill is the only bill is inaccurate and misleading.  

It really makes me wonder if some Thai journalists have even an iota of knowledge about how their government works.  

That hasn’t stopped a lot of cannabis related businesses from going up on the block to be sold.  Facebook marketplace is awash in people trying to dump their dispensaries and farms. 

If 2022 was the Green/Gold Rush Era, 2024 is quickly becoming the Cashout Era as everyone heads for the exits.  

Lastly, I wanted to address some of the speculation about what might happen when or if all of this eventually happens.  

First off, let’s assume that the possible outcomes are limited to:

• Srettha / Somsak Bill

• Lightly Relaxed Bill

• Highly Relaxed Bill 

• No Bill 

There are other potential outcomes but I think their odds are sufficiently low at this point as to not factor them in until or if circumstances change.  

• Srettha / Somsak Bill would be the worst case scenario.  It would be almost everything Srettha has been demanding.  Basically, anything with high THC is going to be difficult to obtain legally in Thailand. 

• The Lightly Relaxed Bill is the Srettha / Somsak Bill but with some token changes made to make it seem like the government is being fair but still ends up strictly limiting cannabis sales in Thailand.  

• The Highly Relaxed Bill leans a bit more towards what Bhumjaithai proposed in their cannabis bill but Pheu Thai will put their spin on it and claim it as their own.  

• No Bill is what happens if Srettha loses his job, there’s a coup, there’s too much debate and nothing gets passed, etc.  

So, outside of No Bill, which would basically be the current status quo, we’ll likely end up with either Hard Medical or Soft Medical requirements as I don’t think Srettha’s version will make it through.  

Hard Medical would be like it was before June 2022.  There would be specific clinics, most of which are run by government hospitals, which will give out highly controlled prescriptions for cannabis therapy.  Growers would only be allowed to sell to authorized processors.

Soft Medical would be like medical in the US where you go in and see a sham doctor who writes you a prescription for cannabis that you can use to purchase at a dispensary.  

The options look like this:  

I see a lot of people talking like Soft Medical is a guaranteed outcome.  It’s not based on any information or analysis.  It’s basically how people hope things will happen.  

But even Soft Medical could end up being too costly and cumbersome for many dispensaries.  

Realistically, in this scenario the dispensary needs the doctor more than the doctor needs the dispensary.  Without a doctor you can’t sell weed but the doctor can still practice medicine without a dispensary.  

What value would the dispensary provide the doctor other than a good location?  Weed is easy to source.  

Add to that the number of customers that will be lost if they have to jump through additional hoops.  Yes, your hardcore stoner types will crawl over broken glass but what about the tourist that is walking by a shop and makes an impulse buy of a few joints?  

At a minimum that impulse buy would turn into a sham medical examination and then being allowed to buy weed, which means it’s no longer an impulse purchase.

Or how many casual users will shy away when they’re asked to hand over their passport?  That basically eliminates tourists from Malaysia or Singapore who may be concerned about getting drug tested when they return.  

I would say that a conservative estimate is that maybe 20% of cannabis sales just disappears. 

And remember, this is with Soft Medical.  

Of course, I don’t want to scaremonger, Soft Medical could end up being more sane. It could be like California and other places where it’s more of a wink-wink medicinal. 

But we generally have an idea about where Pheu Thai wants to take cannabis so everything beyond that will be something that people have to fight for and is far from a given.  

I just wanted to point out that it’s not all rainbows and unicorns if we get Soft Medical.  There is no guarantee of it being like California.  

So anybody confidently saying that you’ll just need a medical marijuana card is just making stuff up that they hope will come true.  

That’s not to say that it’s all doom and gloom either. We’re still a ways off from any of this actually happening and I see this more like armies positioning themselves than the end of the battle.

There are plenty of battles ahead for both the cannabis community as well as Thaksin, Srettha, and Pheu Thai to keep their holds on power.

In fact, the bombastic anti-cannabis rhetoric could all just be part of the plan for Pheu Thai in order to get a better price for allowing Soft Medical. Most people didn’t think they would ever reclassify it as a narcotic so now that they’re threatening to, they’ve turned cannabis into a much bigger bargaining chip.

As usual, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

This week, the prime minister stepped back from the spotlight on the cannabis recriminalization debate to go promote Thai fashion in Milan, handing the issue over to Minister of Public Health, Somsak.

Which is the appropriate thing to do since Thailand, last time I checked, is still a democracy and not a dictatorship where one man can just unilaterally decree laws.  Plus, it would be nice to see models walking down Paris and Milan runways wearing elephant pants and Chang tank tops.

Since Srettha’s infamous anti-cannabis interview the media has shifted their focus towards finding balanced regulations, rather than extreme measures. For instance, the Bangkok Post published an op-ed pointing out that making it illegal, and all of the economic harm it would cause, doesn’t make sense given that they haven’t tried regulation yet.

However, it remains uncertain whether the prime minister might still push for a complete cannabis ban. For now, he seems to be letting things cool down, possibly recognizing he may have overreached.

But it also may be because he has bigger fish to fry and his own job to worry about.

Recently, forty senators requested the Constitutional Court to examine if Srettha violated the law by appointing Pichit Chuenban as office minister. Pichit, a lawyer involved in a 2008 bribery scandal involving Thaksin, could potentially lead to Srettha’s impeachment if the court finds Pichit was morally unqualified for the position and Srettha knowingly put him up for the office anyway. The Bangkok Post also reported that Srettha could be suspended as PM while the court considers the case.

Additionally, the government's attempt to address the rice issue, perceived as an effort to whitewash Yingluck Shinawatra's legacy, backfired, leading to public ridicule.

The recent cabinet reshuffle has also added to the turmoil. It has created the appearance of chaos within Srettha’s office and the Pheu Thai Party. The reshuffle displeased those who lost their positions, such as former agriculture minister Chaiya Promma and Dr. Cholnan, former Minister of Public Health. Chaiya publicly criticized the party and has been making sounds like he may defect while Cholnan’s supporters are openly accusing the party of stabbing Cholnan in the back.

Foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara resigned in protest, and Krisada Chinavicharana of UTN quit after his position was reworked.

Moreover, Anutin Charnvirakul, Minister of the Interior, publicly criticized Pheu Thai, accusing them of betraying his party, Bhumjaithai, over the cannabis issue.

But who is calling the shots at Pheu Thai?

Thaksin Shinawatra, seen by many within and outside of the party as the leader of Pheu Thai, complicates matters.

Despite his significant influence, he remains a polarizing figure.

Not only do many Thais not believe that he was too sick to serve his jail sentence in prison, but his attempt to negotiate the conflict happening in Myanmar only to be shunned by the Myanmar junta has also drawn considerable backlash.

It is a much different world than when Thaksin and Yingluck each went into exile. Thaksin doesn’t draw the same kind of support he once did.

Many of the recent blunders on the part of Pheu Thai would not have received the same kind of backlash that they’re generating today. Thaksin was wildly popular back then and few questioned him. Now, a large chunk of voters were too young to know who he even is.

And Pheu Thai’s disappointing performance in the last election, where they placed second behind Move Forward, definitely suggests changing dynamics in Thailand’s politics.

Which puts Srettha in a very unenviable position. If Srettha follows Thaksin’s orders and they are unpopular with Thais or they fail miserably, Thaksin can easily deflect blame and point at Srettha who is the PM. If Srettha ignores Thaksin’s orders the party is likely to remain loyal to Thaksin and oust Srettha.

So what does this have to do with cannabis?

To be honest, I’m not sure yet.

Surely, the architect of Thailand’s drug war, Thaksin, isn’t going to back off even if Srettha is replaced, impeached, or decides to quit and become a fashion designer. As long as a Pheu Thai PM is in office, they’ll likely keep up the drug war rhetoric.

The big question is what does Thaksin/Pheu Thai want and what are they willing to pay to obtain it.

Would they be willing to back off on cannabis in exchange for the wallet scheme? Are they willing to trade weed to get Yingluck back in the country?

Speculating about what they want is easy, determining how badly they want any particular thing is difficult.

For instance, Pheu Thai may be taking such a hardline position, not because they believe in the drug war, but because they want to use it as a bigger bargaining chip with Bhumjaithai. If Pheu Thai supported cannabis or only wanted to enact some minor commonsense regulations, Bhumjaithai would have little incentive to help Pheu Thai with some of their other goals.

I don’t mention this to say, “Yay, let’s pin our hopes on Pheu Thai collapsing or Bhumjaithai making a deal with Pheu Thai for weed.”  I point it out simply to demonstrate how all of these pieces are connected.  

You can’t just look at any one person or thing trying to figure out where cannabis legalization will end up. Cannabis is just one piece.

And unfortunately, we’re all just pawns in this game.

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

As you might imagine, the big news in cannabis this week has been the PM Srettha demand that all weed shops be closed by April 2025 and the threat that any foreigners involved in owning cannabis businesses be arrested.  

To some, it sounds like Anutin, the architect of legalizing cannabis, has capitulated.  Although he’s claimed that he was double-crossed over the cannabis issue he seemed rather tepid on what recourse Bhumjaithai has.  

The important thing to keep in mind at the moment is that this is just the orders of Srettha and have no legal authority outside of arresting foreigners who have used nominee companies to control cannabis related businesses, which was illegal regardless of cannabis being involved or not.  

Remember Srettha has been pounding his fist about the 10,000 baht wallet scheme since Pheu Thai came to power and he’s still no closer to achieving that than he is to banning recreational cannabis which he said would happen before the end of 2023, then Jan 2024, then by Feb of 2024 . . . you get the picture.  

What has me more concerned is the seemingly reckless nature of this government and the increasingly negative rhetoric.  

Pheu Thai has gone from proposing curbing recreational use to curbing recreational use and no existing businesses will be harmed, to shut down everything and re-list cannabis as a narcotic regardless of how it impacts cannabis businesses.  

Usually one starts with the most extreme demand and then negotiates to a middle-ground.  Here Pheu Thai seems to have started from what seemed like a workable compromise and has transitioned to a position that will be unacceptable to those impacted by the changes.  

There are already protests scheduled to take place in front of Government House by Thai cannabis activist groups and many have already begun considering filing class action lawsuits against the government to compensate them for losses.  

There has also been a noticeable shift in the media coverage with many news outlets questioning the logic of Srettha’s anti-cannabis extremism.  While many Thais seem to not want recreational use to be legal, Srettha’s scorched earth rhetoric seems to be making people realize that fellow Thais could have their lives ruined, which isn’t something they support.  

But, again, the important thing to remember is that politics is a long game.  We haven’t seen how Anutin and Bhumjaithai plan to respond.  We have not seen the full brunt of the cannabis community’s efforts to raise awareness about the damage that Srettha wants to unleash.  And, we have the new Minister of Public Health, Somsak, who seems to enjoy a good relationship with Anutin and, even after Srettah’s demands, seems open to listening to all sides before drafting any laws.  

Last but not least, we have Pheu Thai itself which seems to be hellbent on losing popularity and making themselves look foolish.  For instance this week also saw Pheu Thai try to convince people that the Yingluck rice that has been sitting in storage for 10 years is still fit for human consumption only to be ridiculed across Thai media.  

Also not doing Pheu Thai any favors was Thaksin traveling to the Myanmar border trying to do some sort of peace deal between warring factions.  According to the media he was only granted a meeting with lower level rebel leaders and was denied an audience with the Myanmar military.  Ouch.  

This could end up with egg all over the face of Srettha no matter how popular or unpopular the cannabis policy may be with Thai people because there are no good solutions other than to regulate it.  The Thai media has also been saying this in a range of publications which have pointed out that most of the problems currently associated with cannabis are due to a lack of regulations, regulations that Pheu Thai helped block.  

So, rather than panic, I think we should wait to see what we start hearing from Minister of Public Health Somsak.  We don’t know everything going on behind the scenes quite yet.  I expect that to start playing out of the coming weeks.   Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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Sawadee Everyone,

About a week ago Srettha denied that there were plans for a cabinet reshuffle.  Then he flew up to Chiang Mai and had meetings at the same hotel that Pheu Thai’s defacto leader, Thaksin, was staying but claims they didn’t meet nor did he discuss any cabinet reshuffle.  

Lo and behold, there was a cabinet reshuffle.  

While some of the spots being shifted around are important, the one that probably has the most impact on cannabis is Cholnan Srikaew being given the boot to be replaced by Deputy PM Somsak Thepsutin.  

What makes this difficult to judge right away is the fact that Cholnan didn’t seem to be entirely anti-cannabis and Somsak has a lot of friends on both sides.  

Cholnan always struck me as a guy who was caught between a rock and a hard place.  He actually understood that repealing cannabis legalization was going to be very difficult but Srettha kept making demands and public statements which made Cholnan’s job even more difficult.  

The final straw may have been the Srettha France24 interview where Srettha made comments that Cholnan attempted to walk back.  

Cholnan was the guy who was taking all of the heat.  He was getting pressure from PM Srettha while also taking fire from pro-cannabis supporters and pro-cannabis business concerns.  

The other major headache Srettha made for Cholnan was the fact that the government coalition hadn’t agreed to a complete recriminalization of cannabis which Srettha intimated at during his France24 interview.  

All of the political parties joining a coalition government agree to support a common agenda so they can all work together.  But Srettha’s comments went far beyond what the parties had agreed upon so, in essence, that would allow any of the parties making up the current government to jump ship as it would be seen as a breach of contract.  

So there was Cholnan, stuck trying to appease his PM and minimize the damage Srettha had caused and on the other side he was getting squeezed by a lot of very pissed off pro-cannabis concerns as well as coalition partners that didn’t sign on to recriminalize cannabis.  

Anutin even popped his head up to issue a statement after the Srettha interview reminding the PM that they had already settled the cannabis issue implying that they had come to an understanding on cannabis and this was not part of the understanding.  

Cholnan eventually buckled and told everyone that those were only the personal opinions of the PM and that the party’s stance had not changed.     

Apparently that was seen as disloyal and did not sit well with Srettha because Cholnan lost his job shortly thereafter.  

That said, his comments may not have been the only deciding factor for Srettha.  The cabinet reshuffle seems like it was intended to shore up support for the digital wallet scheme which has been running into roadblocks.  

But what did the cannabis community get by Srettha making Somsak as the new Minister of Public Health?  

Somsak seems a bit of a wildcard.  He recently lost his post at the Ministry of Justice after an uncharacteristic outburst directed at those questioning Thaksin’s stay at a military hospital while he was incarcerated.  He is also known to be very close to Thaksin.  

Yet, he was also once a member of Bhumjaithai a little over a decade ago, so there’s hope that he will sit down and listen to Bhumjaithai more than Cholnan seemed to.  

In early April Somsak told Thai media that while laws regarding kratom had been rolled out successfully he was frustrated that cannabis laws had not been implemented yet.  He called the process for cannabis “incomplete.”  

Additionally, he said, “The best way to unlock or not unlock is to do it completely. If this is still evenly matched, then there must be a law that specifies what the law must provide. If we talk casually like this, it's a laughable thing because there's no law to support it. Must go and do it seriously.”

He also emphasized that kratom and other medicinal herbs will help generate tens of billions of baht in revenue for Thailand because it is has laws which dictate what the rules are but cannabis lacks these laws. 

That does not sound like Srettha’s vision of recriminalizing cannabis completely, yet he was just given the job of overseeing the creation of laws to regulate cannabis.

Ultimately, any policy being advocated by Pheu Thai goes through Thaksin.  And while one of the things Thaksin will always be remembered for is his drug war which some NGOs claim resulted in close to 3,000 extrajudicial killings, Thaksin is forever a pragmatist.  

The real question is whether or not Thaksin can come to terms with some form of legalized cannabis.    

The other thing to keep in mind is that Srettha himself is a dead man walking.  Thaksin has already said that Srettha is a good transition PM but his daughter will lead the way to victory for Pheu Thai in the next election.  Ouch.

But Move Forward Party is still the largest progressive party and Pheu Thai didn’t perform up to expectations in the last election.  The only reason MFP are not in power is hubris and immaturity which led them to put their trust in the Senate to do the right thing, which, of course, they did not.  

The next election will see a different senate and MFP has probably learned some very valuable lessons by having the PM spot taken from them by Pheu Thai.  

That means that despite Thaksin’s visions of his daughter in the PM office, this won’t be a cake walk for Pheu Thai and he’s going to need to fight and claw to even be in a position where his daughter would be a viable PM candidate.  

That’s a very long way of saying that Thaksin may be in a deal making mood.  As Pheu Thai approaches the one-year mark in office, the lack of wins is becoming more and more noticeable to the general public so there may be more willingness to wheel and deal to put a W up on the board.  

That also means that Anutin and Bhumjaithai have a lot of leverage.  

Pheu Thai need Bhumjaithai to get some wins. However, backtracking on promises about cannabis is not a great way to get Bhumjaithai support.

So, as usual, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out but that’s basically the playing field at the moment.  

Stay lifted and enlightened,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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