r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #45

May the best (pro-cannabis) party win

May 14, 2023

Sawadee Everyone,

I’m sending this out before the results of Thailand’s parliamentary election have been announced. Partly because I’m not sure when the final results will be in but also because what the new government will look like is unlikely to be entirely clear for at least a little while longer.

At the time that I write this, PT looks to be doing worse than expected, MFP is looking better than expected, and BJT is about where where many political pundits felt they would be (though, whether they end up as the second or third largest party is somewhat unclear until all the votes are counted).

According to the poll results so far, PT won’t come anywhere near the landslide victory that they had been projecting.

While MFP has said they’ll begin talking to PT later this evening about forming a government, MFP may be jumping the gun a bit.

PT has said that they will only partner with another party if they hold all of the major ministry positions. That could be a sticking point for MFP and their rather ambitious agenda.

Additionally, much of MFP’s success was at the expense of PT. While PT may have been making overtures to MFP when they felt they might just barely miss being able to form a government without a coalition, they may have much different feelings if MFP has done some serious damage to the PT brand.

As I mentioned in a previous newsletter, if PT views MFP as a threat, they may want MFP sitting on the opposition bench rather than allowing them to pass policies which will further strengthen MFP for future elections.

There’s also the issue of whether or not the Thai Supreme Court will dissolve the Move Forward Party over allegations about media ownership which would make any discussions irrelevant.

And, of course, before the final election results are in, MFP could end up with more seats than PT which would mean MFP may be calling the shots and PT may not stomach that.

If that all sounds complicated, welcome to Thai politics. It’s anything but boring.

Where does that leave cannabis?

Well, BJT may still end up being the kingmaker in all of this. It doesn’t appear that any party will win enough seats to form their own government so there will likely be a coalition party. And if PT and MFP can’t come to terms or MFP ends up being dissolved, BJT is neutral enough that they can work with PT or MFP.

Both PT and MFP have both left the door open for cannabis. They have both said that they want medicinal use but didn’t define what they meant which leaves them plenty of room to partner with BJT and polish up the Cannabis Bill that was introduced previously by BJT and claim it solves all their concerns.

We’ll see how this shakes out in the hours, days, and week ahead.

Cheers,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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