Shinawatra’s Hat Trick: Three Prime Ministers, Three Early Exits, And What It Means For Cannabis
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #105
Sawadee Everyone,
Thailand’s political soap opera has claimed yet another Shinawatra. While we don’t yet know who the next prime minister will be, we know who it won’t be: Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
After her father, Thaksin, narrowly dodged prison this week on lèse-majesté charges, Paetongtarn was less fortunate. The Constitutional Court removed her from office over a leaked call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen.
That makes it three Shinawatras elected prime minister, three Shinawatras ejected from office. Two by coup. One by court. A dynasty defined as much by downfall as by victory.
Who’s Still Standing?
Under the constitution, parties had to submit PM candidates before the 2023 election. For Pheu Thai (PT), that list now looks like the political equivalent of a bad joke:
Srettha Thavisin — already out.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra — just removed.
Chaikasem Nitisiri — 77, poor health, and previously passed over.
For Chaikasem to succeed, PT must win a majority vote in parliament and hold together a coalition. With their credibility in tatters, that’s a steep climb. Ultra-nationalists are already protesting in the streets that PT doesn’t deserve to continue in power.
Enter the People’s Party (PP)
The real roadblock is PT’s old frenemy: the People’s Party (PP), rebranded from Move Forward.
PT: Old-school populists under Thaksin’s shadow, addicted to handouts and nostalgia politics.
PP: Young, reformist, and willing to push monarchy reform, a dangerous but energizing message.
Crucially, PT betrayed PP in 2023, stealing the PM slot. Without PP’s backing, PT’s chances of keeping power are almost nil.
The Anutin Gambit
That opens the door for Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai (BJT) — architect of cannabis legalization.
PP has said they could support Anutin as PM, provided he:
Commits to early elections.
Allows constitutional reform debates.
Though they were clear to say that they would not join BJT in a ruling coalition government and would continue to remain in the opposition.
On Friday, Anutin eagerly agreed. PT scrambled to get a meeting too but bungled it, first trying to stall elections. They later backtracked.
BJT insiders now claim defections from PT are already locked in. PT’s acting PM dismissed this as “nonsense.”
Prayut’s Poll Surprise
Meanwhile, ex-general, ex-coup leader, ex-PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, is suddenly Thailand’s most popular PM candidate. A border flare-up with Cambodia has stoked nationalism, boosting his strongman image.
Polls suggest he could retake the top job easily, but he already has a prestigious role as royal advisor. Would he give it up to return to the grind? Few believe so.
Cannabis Forecast
Chaikasem (PT): Bad news. Would likely follow Thaksin’s orders and crack down.
Anutin (BJT): Best outcome. Would roll back PT’s suffocating rules on dispensaries and growers.
Prayut: Wildcard. Not a cannabis crusader, but would likely let Anutin steer as he did when Anutin pushed legalization while Prayut was PM.
The Road Ahead
No matter who takes the seat, it’s likely a lame-duck administration, with new elections expected by early 2026.
PP is positioned to surge, now battle-tested in opposition.
PT is bleeding support. Their 10,000-baht digital wallet flop and casino bill disaster have left voters cold, and many have simply had enough of Shinawatra politics. However, they are scrambling to get parliamentary support and have met with PP to try and secure their support.
By 2030 (the next projected election if new elections are held in 2026), Thaksin will be pushing 80. The Shinawatra era is likely finished.
At a Glance
Winners
Anutin Charnvirakul (BJT): Cannabis crusader turned PM contender.
People’s Party (PP): Now kingmakers.
Prayut Chan-o-cha: Polls say Thailand might still love its old general.
Losers
Pheu Thai (PT): Two Shinawatras gone in a week.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra: Another dynasty heir cut down.
Thaksin Shinawatra: From asset to liability. Still facing possible jail time if it is determine that his illness was not severe enough for him to have spent his entire jail term in a 5-star hospital room.
Cannabis Outlook
Chaikasem: Crackdown risk.
Anutin: Best-case for reform.
Prayut: Neutral to mildly positive.
What’s Next
This week or next: PM vote in parliament.
By early 2026: New elections almost certain.
Beyond: PP ascendant, PT in decline, cannabis future tied to Anutin’s survival and-or PP’s willingness to slow down PT’s punitive new laws.
Bottom line: Thailand is entering yet another transition. Shinawatras are out, PP is ascendant, and cannabis policy could swing wildly depending on who sits in the big chair. But no matter what, all roads now point to early elections in 2026.
PP is likely to continue being the largest party after a 2026 election and thus would likely take the helm as PM and ruling coalition partner. In the past, PP’s former leader, Pita, said that while he wasn’t pro-cannabis, he would like to see Thailand go down a path similar to Canada, first medicinal, and then eventually, sometime far down the road, adult/recreational legalization.
If Anutin becomes PM prior to that, he could cement cannabis rules before PP or anyone else comes to power thus making it difficult to change after the fact.
At the moment, that does seem to be the best case scenario for cannabis in Thailand but we’ll have to wait to see how the scramble for power shakes out over the next few days.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
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