r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #44

Early voting starts this weekend

May 07, 2023

Sawadee Everyone,

This weekend kicked off early voting in the Thai elections. Next Sunday will be the actual Election Day.

For fans of cannabis there’s a lot on the line after next week. Depending on who wins and is able to form a government, things could either get slightly more restrictive or they could become a lot more restrictive.

Most experts agree that Pheu Thai will win the most seats but will fall far short of the landslide they predicted and need in order to form an all-PT government.

Those same experts also agree that Bhumjaithai will likely end up with the second most seats.

This has many predicting that BJT will be the kingmaker (no pun intended) for whoever is able to form the next government.

BJT’s leader, Anutin, served in the Thai Rak Thai Party under Thaksin so while Pheu Thai and BJT have been exchanging some sharp elbows in the media, Anutin is the type of person PT can partner with.

Anutin and BJT were also part of the government that was just dissolved so he is said to have good relationships with the former government’s PPRP as well as the party that PM Prayut joined, UTN.

The real risk for the cannabis community is if the Move Forward Party or the Democrats do much better than expected at the polls. Both parties have taken a much more hardline stance against cannabis, even calling for it to be re-criminalized.

MFP and PT both have more progressive platforms but MFP and PT are battling hard against each other in the polls and it may not serve the long-term interests of PT to align themselves with a party that may be an even bigger threat in future elections.

Opposition parties rarely get anything done and PT brining MFP into their government would give MFP an opportunity to accomplish some of their platform and become more popular with the electorate, which is not in PT’s best interests either.

That said, both PT and MFP have some baggage that may also make it difficult for them to work together to form a new government.

First is that many expect that PT will try to bring fugitive former PM Thaksin back to Thailand without serving a jail term. Thaksin has even hinted as much recently saying that he wants to come home and visit his granddaughter.

And MFP wants to change Section 112 which is Thailand’s lèse-majesté law which prohibits making statements that are derogatory or insulting to the monarchy.

PT has already their defacto leader, Thaksin, and his sister, Yingluck, both elected to the PM spot and both overthrown in coups. They may not want to touch Section 112 with a ten foot pole as it’s an almost guaranteed coup trigger.

And while many PT voters are looking for progressive policies and are not fans of the military government that has ruled Thailand for nearly a decade, many of them are still big fans of the monarchy and MFP going after Section 112 could lose PT some votes in future elections.

Whew, that’s almost as confusing to write as I’m sure it is to read so let’s cut this week’s message right here and we’ll see how things develop after next week when the results are in and the backroom dealmaking really kicks off.

Cheers,

u/CannabisThailandMod

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